Welcome to the blog of Dr. Lisa Burns' Fall 2022 Political Communication class. Our goal is to provide insightful commentary on political communication strategy in the 2022 midterm elections and the impact of image politics, polling, and the partisan divide on political discourse and voter (dis)engagement.
Tuesday, September 27, 2022
GOTV & Stump Campaigning – Tuesday, October 4th (Blog #5)
Stump campaigning is an essential part of campaigning that presents a prime opportunity for potential voters to meet candidate’s and for the candidates draw these voters out to the polls in support. This type of campaigning provides additional exposure to a candidate and allows for a larger portion of the population to engage with them. President Trump was notorious for his stumping across the United States with his extravagant rallies targeting Republicans. According to The Washington Post, “The conversations have included trips to Arizona, districts on the southern border, some parts of Texas, many places in Florida, select areas of Georgia, areas in North Carolina and Ohio and the western side of Pennsylvania. The targeted approach reflects a shared interest in calibrating Trump’s interventions to capitalize on his enduring appeal with Republicans but avoid alienating swing voters” (Arnsdorf et. al). This allowed him to garner a real connection with this demographic – who also proved to be extremely loyal voters who wanted him to rerun again in 2024. According to Richard Semiatin, “By creating a safe space for these supporters, the Trump campaign wanted to turn this traditional low-turnout bloc into a high-turnout bloc of voters” (Semiatin). Thus, displaying how stump campaigning may draw out voters who may not have been as active before.
Candidate Raphael Warnock has been stumping primarily around his home state, Georgia. He mainly holds large rallies in key areas like Savannah, Albany, Columbus and Midway, GA, in order to draw out these rural voters. Warnock’s top talking points in his stump speeches include the right to access affordable health care, rebuilding an economy that creates and protects more jobs for the citizens of Georgia, voting rights, criminal justice reform and education. He appears to target the rural sections of Georgia in order to ensure that all citizens of Georgia can cast a vote – preferably in support of him. Given the state of the economy in Georgia, voting access can come into question when thinking about where these candidates choose to stump. Voting access or integrity is an extremely important topic because free and fair elections are a foundational part of political freedom and every individual is entitled to a vote within our democracy. It is important to ensure that every citizens votes are being cast and they are being counted correctly in order to ensure sound results that ‘the people’ decided upon. I do not believe that Raphael Warnock is including any key endorsements, like Biden, in his strategy because Biden’s presidential approval rating has been historically low. Therefore, I don’t think he wanted Biden’s negative approval rating to impact his campaign in a negative way. It was recorded that Biden endorsed Warnock in 2020, however nothing following 2022.
Arnsdorf, Isaac, et al. "Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-edged Sword." The Washington Post, 3 Sept. 2022, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/03/ trump-midtermspennsylvania/?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_evening&carta-url=https://s2.washingtonpost.com/car-ln-tr/37d3d04/6313c069ab732227d00943dc/5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c/15/47/6313c069ab732227d00943dc&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83. Accessed 28 Sept. 2022.
Carey, Adam. "Sen. Raphael Warnock Talks Jobs, Healthcare in Rome." Rome News-Tribune, 31 Aug. 2022, www.northwestgeorgianews.com/rome/news/local/sen-raphael-warnock-talks-jobs-healthcare-in-rome/article_813e96f4-2965-11ed-9197-4f9d73335737.html. Accessed 28 Sept. 2022.
Semiatin, Richard J. "Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future." Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, edited by Semiatin, 4th ed., CQ Press, 2013, pp. 80-99.
"Reverend Raphael Warnock U.S. Senate Issues." Warnock For Georgia, APOLLO, warnockforgeorgia.com/issues/. Accessed 28 Sept. 2022.
Stump campaigning is possibly the most important event that a candidate can do during a race. It allows for the candidate to get their message out to a potential group of voters and get the existing base excited to vote for the candidate. John Fetterman has been no stranger to stump campaigning. While he hasn't done as many as his opponent Dr. Oz because he is still recovering from a stroke. He is doing his best to visit all counties in Pennsylvania regardless if they lean democratic or republican to get as many votes as possible. He hasn’t been featuring any surrogates and it's mainly been him doing a speech to the best of his ability. The main two topics he discusses are his pro-abortion and pro-union policy positions and attacking his opponent Dr. Oz. These rallies have led to Fetterman receiving a mix of both positive and negative media coverage. A more positive example can be seen from CNN where they write “A long line of voters had gathered outside of the Bayfront Convention Center with an air of excitement before the candidate took the stage, eager to hear the Democrat speak” (McKend, Merica, and Janfaza, paragraph 12). Here they highlighted the energy and passion Fetterman’s voters have for him even when he isn’t on stage. A more negative example can be seen from Townhall.com where they write “when he does show up at rare campaign events, it's for just a few minutes. Usually wearing an oversized sweatshirt and basketball shorts, his appearance is sloppy. His words are even more incoherent and usually Democrat friendly media outlets are starting to take notice” (Palvich paragraph 2). While the praise and criticism of his rallies has largely been down partisan lines. These rallies still get his message out effectively. As people will clip parts of his speech and will post them all over social media, specifically twitter. According to a study from Pew Research, they write “62% of tweets that the Center’s analysis identified as political were retweets, with no additional text from the user who shared them. That was significantly higher than the share of retweets in nonpolitical tweets posted by U.S. adults (38%)” (Bestvater and Shah, paragraph 3). This means that even people simply re-posting clips from his rallies can be very beneficial in order to excite or reach new voters. However, one topic that John Fetterman surprisingly doesn’t talk about is voter access/rights. Ever since 2020 the topic of voting rights and accessibility has been a huge topic, especially among democratic voters (voting disenfranchisement specifically). According to the book Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, they write “In a poll by the Public Religion Research Institute, 64 percent of Democrats found avoiding disenfranchisement to be a more important value than preventing voter fraud" (Nelson, page 182). This is a major issue that Fetterman isn’t capitalizing on. If he can, this could be the final push he needs to beat Dr. Oz who has been closing the gap in the recent polls.
Works Cited: Bestvater, Samuel, and Sono Shah. “5 Facts about Political Tweets Shared by U.S. Adults.” Pew Research Center, Pew Research Center, 30 June 2022, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/06/30/5-facts-about-political-tweets-shared-by-u-s-adults/. Candice, Nelson J. “‘Chapter 11 Voter Identification Laws and Ballot Access Measures.’” Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., Thousand Oaks, Ca, 2021, pp. 176–189. McKend, Eva, et al. “'So Grateful to Be Here Tonight': John Fetterman Returns to Campaign Trail after Suffering Stroke in May | CNN Politics.” CNN, Cable News Network, 13 Aug. 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/12/politics/fetterman-return-campaign-trail-stroke/index.html. Pavlich, Katie. “Even CNN Is Noticing Fetterman's Incoherent Campaigning.” Townhall, Townhall.com, 25 Aug. 2022, https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2022/08/25/even-cnn-is-noticing-fettermans-incoherent-campaigning-n2612241.
Stump campaigning is important to a candidate’s GOTV strategy as it is an easy and digestible way of communicating a candidate’s stance on policies. These stump speeches are vital for when a candidate is on the campaign trail as they quickly relay the policies and ideas of the candidate. Fetterman’s strategy for voter engagement is to project himself as a populist figure (Kapur). He has a mix of stances that mostly are left-leaning and appeal to primarily blue areas, yet he also has some stances that would appeal to red counties. This plays somewhat into his stump speeches which seem to revolve around recognizing all of Pennsylvania and all of its citizens, not just the major cities. I believe he is specifically campaigning in red counties around Pennsylvania because of an increase in the “rural and small city” voter count (Semiatin 88). Former President Trump targeted his campaign toward people from these rural and low-income areas that have been alienated and forgotten by society. Hillary Clinton did not account for this when campaigning, and I suspect Fetterman does not want to make the same mistake. While somewhat uninspired, his campaign slogan, “Every Vote, Every County, " drives that popular image forward. As for the red counties he has been campaigning in, the most important one seems to be Indiana County. According to a chair member of the Indiana County Democrats, Jamie Smith, “If you’re going to the big rallies in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Scranton, that’s great — but where you really pick up ground are those 400, 500 and 1,000-people rallies you have in places like Indiana” (Routh). The stump speeches he gives in these areas seem to revolve around how his opponent, Mehmet Oz, lacks the knowledge, dedication, and personal connection to Pennsylvania. He also touches on healthcare, specifically women’s healthcare, and abortion. While poking fun at Mehmet Oz seems to be effective, I think he spends too much time doing this and would be better off addressing issues like the economic crisis will land with more people rather than just saying Oz is out of place. Joel Sears, a republican from Western Pennsylvania stresses the need for all candidates to talk about property tax burdens (Dunklau). I feel like a lot of Fetterman’s stump speeches boil down to taking shots at Oz and talking about his own health. While they seem to be effective, I think he should maybe focus on issues that concern the people in the red counties he’s trying to connect with. I think being a former mayor of an economically struggling town, he should be able to connect to the voters there more than Oz could. Fetterman does seem to imply that voter access is an important topic with his slogan, but I have not found any records of him specifically mentioning it in a stump speech. He also doesn’t seem to have any major endorsements from people like Biden which probably does him favors when campaigning in red areas.
Works Cited Semiatin, Richard J. "Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future." Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, edited by Semiatin, 4th ed., CQ Press, 2013, pp. 80-99. Dunklau, Sam. “Pennsylvania Primary Voters Turned out in Record Numbers. Here's What Drew Some to the Polls.” 90.5 WESA, WESA, 30 June 2022, https://www.wesa.fm/politics-government/2022-06-30/pennsylvania-primary-voters-turned-out-in-record-numbers-heres-what-drew-some-to-the-polls. Kapur, Sahil. “Fetterman's Plan to Win Pennsylvania: Taking His Populist Message to Trump Country.” NBCNews.com, NBCUniversal News Group, 18 May 2022, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/john-fetterman-charts-unconventional-path-flip-senate-seat-democrats-rcna29349. Routh, Julian. “John Fetterman Reaffirms Commitment to Rural Pa. Communities during Rally at IUP.” Gazette, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 29 Sept. 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-state/2022/09/20/john-fetterman-senate-campaign-rally-indiana-university-of-pennsylvania-democrat-vs-oz-stroke-health-rural/stories/202209200116.
Stump campaigning is a crucial part of a successful campaign, as it helps potential voters get a sense of what the candidate’s general platform is. I like the explanation of it as an elevator pitch of sorts for a politician, a speech that they give repeatedly on multiple stops of the campaign trail to communicate their stances to voters. Herschel Walker has mainly been campaigning in areas of Georgia that already voted red in the 2020 presidential election. He has not done a lot of campaigning in the big cities in the state, such as Atlanta, Savannah, and Athens. For example, this summer he had an event in Ocilla, which is three hours away from Atlanta. (King) Walker’s debate against Raphael Warnock will be taking place in Savannah on October 14th which could get him some more support there, but he really should be focusing on winning over voters that haven’t already been voting republican over the last few years.
His events appear to be mainly rallies and speeches with large audiences. His main talking point is race. In almost all of his speeches, he makes a point to say that he loves everyone equally, regardless of the color of their skin. He also talks about how the democratic party is politicizing race and using it to divide the country. Walker even compared racism to a pre-existing condition, language that was used at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. (Richards) He has also performed speeches where he loosely claimed that he knew a cure for COVID-19, but he has not expanded upon that since. (Associated Press) Walker’s other biggest stump speech topic is President Joe Biden and how he is failing the country. The Georgian frequently slams Biden and Warnock in speeches, shaming his opponent for his allegiance to the current president. (King)
Walker has not mentioned voting access/integrity very much, but I think it’s a very important topic. The first line of Chapter 11 of Campaigns on the Cutting Edge explains that voters’ personal identification information must match that of their state records in order to be able to vote. This law is in place in Georgia, making it relevant to the race that I’m following between Warnock and Walker. These voter ID laws can certainly influence who can and cannot vote. For example, immigrant voters may be disproportionately impacted by policies like this because they may be waiting on certain documentation or have problems with their identification. It came as no surprise to me that the chapter stated that republican politicians, who are often in favor of closed borders and immigration control, are in favor of these voter ID laws. It definitely feels like there’s some sort of bigotry laced throughout that. This could potentially be a bad look for Walker, as he is trying to win over people of color since both candidates in his race are black men.
Another notable republican, former president Donald Trump, is also in support of Walker. He has endorsed him multiple times, in the media and on his Truth Social platform, going as far as calling him a “shining star.” Walker’s strategy is similar to that of Trump’s a few years ago, targeting Biden and the republican party. (Arnsdorf, Scherer, Dawsey) It still remains to be seen whether or not this Trump endorsement will be a strength or a weakness for Walker.
Arnsdorf, Isaac, Dawsey, Josh, and Scherer, Michael. “Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-Edged Sword.” The Washington Post. 3 September, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/03/trump-midterms-pennsylvania/?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_evening&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37d3d04%2F6313c069ab732227d00943dc%2F5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c%2F15%2F47%2F6313c069ab732227d00943dc&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83. Accessed October 2nd, 2022.
Barrow, Bill. “Herschel Walker skips details in bid to oust Raphael Warnock.” Associated Press News. 26 August, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-biden-inflation-congress-f8dcede99c2a528f6c88630f34144dcc. Accessed October 2nd, 2022.
Crouch, Jeffrey. “Chapter 11: Voter Identification Laws and Ballot Access Measures.” In “The 2020 Presidential Campaign: A Communications Perspective” Edited by Robert E. Denton, Rowman & Littlefield, 2021. Accessed October 2nd, 2022.
King, Maya. “Amid Campaign Revamp, Herschel Walker Stumps Without a Stumble.” The New York Times. 19 July, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/us/politics/herschel-walker-campaign.html. Accessed October 2nd, 2022.
Richards, Doug. “On the stump and in ads, Herschel Walker talks race.” 11 Alive. 7 September, 2022, https://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/herschel-walker-senate-candidate-race-conversations-new-ad/85-6c5e4011-2fc0-4712-9e2f-7b62b8e499e3. Accessed October 2nd, 2022.
Get Out the Vote efforts have changed drastically over the past decade. The digital age and improved technologies have both complicated and improved voter registrations systems and campaign microtargeting. Semiatin lays out the key to GOTV programs referencing the 2016 presidential election, stating that "the results from 2016 point out that the key to any get-out-the-vote (GOTV) program relies on getting your base out to the polls and voters who match the profile of support for your candidate but who may not be thought of as traditional base voters" (Semiatin 80). Dr. Oz has done a lackluster job stump campaigning. His methods have frequently changed and he’s yet to establish a consistent image with voters. Although initially riding on his Trump endorsement, Oz has since pulled back this marketable aspect in hopes to target undecided and independent voters. Vanity Fair found that “In a review of more than a dozen radio, TV, and public appearances that Oz has conducted since securing the nomination, he appears to have only mentioned Trump when directly asked about him, opting instead to stick to talking points on uniting Americans and solving the current energy and economic crises” (Ecarma). Additionally, he has slowly stopped mentioning Trump on his social channels and removed photos of the two republican politicians posed together from his website and Twitter banner (Ecarma). Pennsylvania’s status as a battleground state makes accessing the anti-trump GOP base critically important to Oz’s campaign. But this strategy may not bode well. Trump spokesman Taylor Budowich reports that “Americans are hungry for the policies and leadership” of the Trump presidency, “and it’s those same policies and leadership that will fuel big Republican wins in 2022 and beyond” (Arnsdorf et al.). What has remained consistent is Oz’s apprehensive response to discussing the outcome of the 2020 election. Oz did appear to suggest that the election was stolen back in an April debate but has since remained indifferent to the issue (Ecarma). He’s addressed more broadly, on his Twitter, voter access and election integrity in Pennsylvania, suggesting solutions like poll observers, voter IDs, and signature verification processes (@DrOz). Oz has focused on hyperlocal public appearance, recently attending the Penn State tailgate at beaver stadium (@DrOz). And over the past month, he’s also gone to community forums on crime, visited small towns struggling economically, and has eaten at many restaurants always posing with constituents. Oz is working to soften his celebrity image with these voter blocs. Radio has always been a tool for GOTV efforts, especially for targeting voters who are hard to reach by phone banking (Semiatin 84). Oz has tried to make use of this traditional tactic, recently appearing on WEEO News Talk (@DrOz). However, a radio interview from 2014 resurfaced this month where Oz says incest is not a big problem” and explained why girls don’t want to have sex with their fathers (Massie). His GOTV are lack luster and struggling to hold up to Fetterman’s, and cancel culture is dragging him down.
Oz’s stump speech usually starts out talking about how he is the child of legal (emphasis on legal) immigrants. There’s a major thread of the American Dream and patriotism. He jumps from the Green New Deal to RTC and gender studies in elementary schools, government overreach during Covid-19 and more (Pennsylvania U.S. Senate candidate Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano remarks in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania). However, Oz’s most prominent talking point in speeches and on social media is crime.
Get-out-the-vote efforts are highly important in the 2022 midterm elections. As campaigns move into the digital age, they have begun to approach voters as if they are consumers of a product (the candidate.) “The focus is on the relationship with the customer (voter) at his or her own convenience” (Semiatin, 2021, pp. 86.) In addition, stump campaigning is increasingly hyper-local, as parties and campaigns target specific precincts within congressional districts based on factors like partisanship and voter turnout (pp. 81.) When it comes to the Val Demings senate campaign in Florida, the former Orlando police chief’s team has worked to target key bases identified by Semiatin (2021), such as “swing” precincts, her democratic base, minority voters in “red” districts and gen-z voters (pp. 82.) For example, Demings visited the University of Miami in September to speak with college students about her plans for office and stance on abortion rights (Terr, 2022.) FiveThirtyEight identifies Miami as spanning across two congressional districts: the 24th and 26th. Though the 24th district is “solid blue,” FL-26 is a “competitive Republican” area (FiveThirtyEight, 2022.) This means that Miami is a mixture of blue and “swing” voters, and that the Demings campaign is smart to want to target the democratic base and undecided voters of Miami’s two districts. Part of this strategy is appealing to young voters, such as the UMiami students she talked to in September, who most likely have more progressive views on issues like abortion and may be inspired by her prescense on campus to register to vote and turn out for her on election day. Besides coming to their college campuses, the Demings campaign also uses social media to get out the gen-z vote. “Social media can produce peer pressure regarding how to vote and making sure you get there” (Semiatin, 2021, pp. 87.) For example, if UMiami students start sharing to Instagram that Demings came to campus, maybe students will be more likely to look her up and give her their vote. Lastly, in my own opinion as a student journalist myself, it’s important that the article I cited about Deming’s visit to UMiami was from a student publication, because student newspapers and news websites deliver university-centered news that students are probably more likely to interact with than other news sources. In my own experience, these articles get shared on social media by the news organization and student journalists, which increases its viewership and sends the message that Demings cares about college students.
Another key base that the Deming’s campaign must appeal to is Black women. Daniels and Dowe (2021) write that “a broad network of community cultivation and support (for Black female voters), including local and civic organizations and such institutions as Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) and Black churches” may help Demings get out the vote this November (para. 3.) For example, Demings is a member of Delta Sigma Theta, a historically Black sorority, and Links, a nonprofit organization focused on elevating Black women (para. 6.) This shows the importance that interest groups, nonprofits and activist organizations play in getting out the Black female vote. “Being affiliated with these groups gives Demings a chance to hear directly from Black women about their political concerns — and to reach out to them to communicate her vision. Black women make up only 7 percent of the U.S. population, but they tend to vote at higher rates than other groups. They are the Democratic Party’s most loyal and consistent voters. The national and international network of Deltas and Links members gives Demings more fundraising opportunities among people who have already heard about her civic activism and public service” (Daniels and Dowe, 2021, para. 6.) The Demings campaign has been placing their bets on the endorsement of community organizations, not presidential rallies. In fact, Demings has not really campaigned with President Joe Biden. Perry (2022) writes that Deming’s focus is on statewide polls, not “outside surrogates” (para. 8.) During a recent trip to Fort Lauderdale, (a district that tends to lean blue, according to FiveThirtyEight) President Biden Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist, but not Demings. In addition, Biden has not been in Florida for over a year (Perry, 2022, para. 1-8.) This shows that the Deming’s team is not keen on presenting Biden as the face of her senate campaign. While Biden has been campaigning for midterm democratic candidates in swing states like Pennsylvania, “some Democratic candidates in battleground states have not been enthusiastic about campaigning with the president” (Lati, 2022, para. 27.) Many democratic candidates in swing states like Florida have higher approval ratings than the president himself, and would like to separate themselves from the president’s unpopularity. In addition, the president’s party tends to lose the midterms, so it could be damaging to be seen campaigning with him (para. 16-20.) “(Biden’s) being attacked more often in televised ads than Obama was at this point in 2010, or Trump was in 2018. He goes largely unnamed on Democratic campaign websites and Twitter accounts. And candidates in key races in battleground states are either not asking him to come — or actively avoiding him when he does according to a Washington Post survey of more than 60 candidates in the most competitive gubernatorial, U.S. Senate and congressional campaigns in the country” (Viser, 2022, para. 3.) Therefore, Deming’s stump campaign and GOTV strategies have been to mobilize her base, target swing voters and districts, appeal to Black women and young people and to distance herself from President Biden.
Stump campaigning has always been an important part of political campaigns. It is essential for candidates to go visit their publics and show their character so that their constituents get out the vote (called GOTV). However, I do believe that stump campaigning strategies and effectiveness are rapidly changing. With the advent of new technologies and an increasing trend of globalization, campaigns need to adapt to fit modern publics. Author Richard Semiatin explains this new trend campaigns face saying, "They know what voters eat, where they shop, and what they watch on television. Given all the personal information out in public and cyberspace, presidential, senatorial, congressional, and gubernatorial elections will become more individualized," (Sematin). Campaigns need to deliberately focus on specific voters and must make specific efforts to appeal to specific voters on an individual level.
John Fetterman's efforts reflect these changes in campaign strategy. Fetterman's stump campaigning tactics aim to cover the entirety of Pennsylvania, under his slogan "Every County, Every Vote". His efforts are due to the recognition of the importance of this Pennsylvania election. For instance, in his article "Pennsylvania primary voters turned out in record numbers. Here's what drew some to the polls.", Sam Dunklau interviewed Pennsylvania residents about the coming election. One resident, Katrina Peters, said, "'I vote in every election regardless. It’s so important. But this time, it feels like it’s higher stakes,'" (Dunklau). Fetterman has recognized this voter mindset and has adapted his strategy to visit as many voters as possible. His visits normally consist of medium-sized rallies, occasionally speaking to special interest groups.
As stated, Fetterman's strategy is to visit as many counties and as many voters as possible. Many counties even joke that the last Democratic candidate to visit was John F. Kennedy (Routh). Campaigning to the entirety of the state does support his individual-focused efforts. Fetterman's speeches can be described as unconventional. One description of a visit to Indiana County clocks his speech as short (seven minutes), casual, and focused on criticizing his opponent Mehmet Oz (Routh). Most of Fetterman's speeches seem focused on criticizing Oz, but recently he has started discussing his health issues, trying to spin that development in a positive light. Fetterman has not discussed voting access and integrity.
Fetterman has Biden's endorsement for the position and has publicized this. However, Fetterman is now using his relationship with Biden to further amplify his issues. For instance, Fetterman used Biden's visit to Pittsburgh to put pressure on marijuana legalization (Terruso). By having Biden's endorsement and putting pressure on Biden on key issues, Fetterman is appealing to both Biden's fans and critics.
Work Cited
Dunklau, Sam. “Pennsylvania Primary Voters Turned out in Record Numbers. Here's What Drew Some to the Polls.” 90.5 WESA, WESA, 30 June 2022, https://www.wesa.fm/politics-government/2022-06-30/pennsylvania-primary-voters-turned-out-in-record-numbers-heres-what-drew-some-to-the-polls.
Routh, Julian. “John Fetterman Reaffirms Commitment to Rural Pa. Communities during Rally at IUP.” Gazette, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 29 Sept. 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-state/2022/09/20/john-fetterman-senate-campaign-rally-indiana-university-of-pennsylvania-democrat-vs-oz-stroke-health-rural/stories/202209200116.
Semiatin, Richard J. "Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future." Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, 4th ed., edited by Richard J. Semiatin, CQ Press, 2020, pp. 80-99.
Terruso, Julia. “Fetterman Uses Pittsburgh Labor Day Visit to Push Pot Policy to President Biden.” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 4 Sept. 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-state/2022/09/04/fetterman-decriminalize-marijuana-pittsburgh-labor-day-parade-pot-policy-president-biden/stories/202209010025.
Bella Baird The GOTV strategy has been used by Demings’s mostly through social media and college campuses. Demings’s seems to be slight lacking in focusing purely on the GOTV strategy. The strategy shows,"the key to any get-out-the-vote (GOTV) program relies on getting your base out to the polls and voters who match the profile of support for your candidate but who may not be thought of as traditional base voters”(Semitian). I find the Demings’s focuses on the same crowds and does no advertise her events as big as they should be. Her main focus has been the main demographics that she can connect with: those who do not like Rubio, African Americans, Democrats, women, and law enforcement. Demings was in the running for vice president back in 2020, but it is now clear that Biden is not someone she is looking to be by her side. Biden took a visit to Florida and Demings was nowhere to be seen, “Demings is likely trying to avoid a photo-op with the president, who is not particularly popular in Florida, said Aubrey Jewett, a University of Central Florida political scientist” (Swisher). Although Biden came to Florida to speak it seems Val took the day to head to Washington weirdly enough. Mr. President does not have a huge fanbase in Florida and has been quite desperate to share with the states that, “they have pushed American democracy to the brink. And in Pittsburgh, he told union workers that anyone who refuses to accept the outcome of a democratic election is not a patriot” (Lati). It seems Demings’s does not want a negative view on her campaign having anything to do with the president. Val Demings’s main upcoming campaigning events are being hosted at large Florida state schools such as University of Florida and Florida International University. Which will most likely be the largest events she will host targeting both students and alumni. Other events seem to be smaller visits throughout Florida such as St. Petes to Tampa. I have found that Demings’s has done a lesser job getting the vote out and showing off her events. The only place I can find photos are in her Instagram video clips showing a montage of different things. Her website allows you to sign up for different events, but there is no way to tell the address until you sign up. Demings’s big topics in her speeches are typically about how she is better than Rubio. She focuses on the key topics that today’s younger audience extremely cares about, abortion, gay pride, gun violence. Demings fought back against Rubio when he clearly stated his thoughts on abortion on CBS Miami, “Demings’ campaign announced the launch of “Demings for Women,” with a kickoff event held at the Firefighters Memorial Building in Doral on Friday night” (Riski). Demings fought back extremely fast with this campaign event to fight back against Rubio. An honest and strong move against her opponent.
Works Cited Iati, Marisa. “Biden Turns Urgently to Critical Task of Holding the Senate.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 12 Sept. 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/12/biden-pennsylvania-senate-race/?utm_campaign=wp_todays_headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_headlines&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37e640b%2F631f0349f3d9003c58d1bb34%2F5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c%2F42%2F57%2F631f0349f3d9003c58d1bb34&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83. Semiatin, Richard J. “‘Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future.’” Campaigns On The Cutting Edge, CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA, 2021. Swisher, Skyler. “Val Demings to Skip President Biden's Orlando Rally; Crist 'Proud' to Welcome Him.” Orlando Sentinel, 22 Sept. 2022, https://www.orlandosentinel.com/politics/2022-election/os-ne-politics-2022-election-demings-skips-rally-20220922-s2wukegxgjgoblfczrwskpqm3q-story.html. Riski, Tess. “Demings Rallies Women in Doral as She Amps up Campaign.” Tampa Bay Times, Tampa Bay Times, 27 Aug. 2022, https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2022/08/27/demings-rallies-women-in-doral-as-she-amps-up-campaign/.
Stump campaigning has changed drastically throughout history and the past few years are no exception. Amidst the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2020 election, there have been massive changes in campaign strategy as covid has forced candidates to take a hybrid approach with in-person and digital messages. Chapter 6 of the Semiatin textbook talked about some of the ways candidates reach their voters in convenient and accessible ways. The reading quotes “The focus is on the relationship with the customer and how to reach that customer at his or her convenience. The techniques to reach that customer come from microtargeting. Political microtargeting “refers to the use of different communications (mail, phone, canvassing, direct mail, and social media advertising, etc.” (Semiatin). Overall I think it is interesting to see how candidates are adapting or not adapting to change, and how they are dealing with and addressing certain issues. Stump campaigns are critically important for shaping a candidate's character as well as image. For my election-eve project, I am looking at Marco Rubio. After looking at some of his campaign strategies it is apparent to me what he is focusing on. One thing I noticed, in particular, was how he tries not to associate himself with Trump or Biden and acts in a very independent manner. While this can be seen as both good and bad Rubio seems to stick to this approach throughout the entirety of his campaigns. An article I was reading titled Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-Edged Sword talks about some of the ways midterm candidates are choosing to interact with the current president as well as former president Trump. The article mentions how “Republicans privately say the reality is more complicated than most candidates are eager to admit. In the primary, Trump’s endorsement and the boost from a rally with him were the envy of all. In the general, though, Trump’s impact is decidedly more mixed. Especially in places where Republicans are hoping to make inroads into Democratic territory, Trump’s intervention is less welcome” (Arnsdorf, Scherer, Dawsey). Overall after reading this and looking at some of Rubio's campaign strategies I think his approach to not taking after former president Trump could be risky, but could also pay off when thinking about the democratic vote.
In addition to this, the media has played an even larger role than ever before. Candidates have to watch their every move and make sure they are making the right decisions in such unprecedented times. For Rubio One of the many places he recently campaigned in was Brevard County. After looking into this I found an article titled Sen. Marco Rubio appeals for Brevard voter support on issues of culture wars, and the economy which talked about some of the issues and topics Rubio focused on in this particular rally while avoiding mention of former president Trump. The article mentions how “Rubio touched on schools and the curriculum, border security and immigration, as well as the economy and inflation. He railed against what he believes to be the leftist agenda of President Joe Biden and the Democrats, while attacking Demings for her time in the House of Representatives and as Orlando police chief” (Chapoco). Ultimately I think this approach from Rubio is interesting as it avoids any super-controversial topics such as abortion and voter integrity. Despite this, I think he can receive a lot of criticism as well as support so it will be interesting to see what adjustments he makes, if any, based on polls and other feedback. Lastly, after reading and looking at some of Rubio’s social media posts on Instagram, Youtube, and Twitter I found that Rubio interacts with his supporters in a variety of different ways from small meetings with Florida’s ranchers and cattlemen to large rallies in more densely populated areas. One article I read titled Positive Marco Rubio ad spotlights the PPP success story and mentioned how Rubios recent ad and how successful the program was in helping frontline workers keep their jobs during and after the pandemic. The article quotes “The 30-second ad, entitled “Diego’s” illustrates how that forgivable loan scheme to businesses helped defray payroll expenses during pandemic-driven shutdowns in 2020, using restaurant staff’s first-person testimony to frame the utility of the program” (Gancarski). I think this is important to consider when looking at Rubio’s campaign strategies because by releasing this ad he is reaching a wide variety of people online that he may have not reached at his in-person rallies. I think this was an effective way for Rubio to show genuineness as well as grow his brand/character. Overall I think Rubio has many strengths in his campaign strategy, however, some of those strengths can also be interpreted as weaknesses depending on the voters' values.
Works Cited Chapoco, Ralph. “Sen. Marco Rubio Appeals for Brevard Voter Support on Issues of Culture Wars, Economy.” Florida Today, Florida Today, 23 Sept. 2022, https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2022/09/23/rubio-demings-senate-race-desantis-fine-immigration-elections-trump-florida-brevard-congress/8085752001/. Gancarski, A.G. “Positive Marco Rubio Ad Spotlights PPP Success Story.” Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government., 9 Sept. 2022, https://floridapolitics.com/archives/554880-positive-marco-rubio-ad-spotlights-ppp-success-story/. Arnsdorf, Isaac, et al. "Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-edged Sword." The Washington Post, 3 Sept. 2022, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/03/ trump-midtermspennsylvania/?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_evening&carta-url=https://s2.washingtonpost.com/car-ln-tr/37d3d04/6313c069ab732227d00943dc/5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c/15/47/6313c069ab732227d00943dc&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83. Accessed 28 Sept. 2022. Semiatin, Richard J. "Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future." Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, edited by Semiatin, 4th ed., CQ Press, 2013, pp. 80-99.
Senator Dem. Raphael Warnock has been campaigning all across rural Georgia in hopes of winning over those parts of the state. Recently he has had events in towns such as Albany, Dublin, and Newnan. None of these towns were large rallies but they show where Warnock is focusing and all have things in common, they are in rural areas of Georgia and could help lead him to victory in the upcoming midterm elections if he continues to target areas such as these. The biggest of the areas that Warnock has held events at was Augusta, where he recently held a rally at Augusta Tech. Augusta helped Warnock win the special election in 2021, and while he should be holding events in every large city in Georgia, he should continue to mostly focus on rural Georgia, as that is where the election will most likely be won. Warnock has been focusing on voting access, his bipartisan infrastructure bill, abortion, and healthcare in his stump speeches as of late. Peter Sullivan in his article for The Hill, “Warnock pushes to close Medicaid coverage gap amid tough reelection battle” said “Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) is making a last-ditch effort to add a provision providing health coverage in GOP-led states declining Medicaid expansion to Democrats’ sweeping package headed for a vote in the coming days.” This has helped Warnock mightily with Democrats in the state of Georgia, especially with Herschel Walker’s recent comments in his non-support of Medicaid. Voting rights/access has always been a big issue for Senator Warnock as well. As he himself said on television on MSNBC and from Yahoo.com, “It’s the reason why I know that I still have work to do in the United States Senate to protect this core, core value. I was John Lewis’ pastor and in his memory I continue to fight the good fight.” This issue, along with the others I mentioned prior, have been issues that Warnock has reiterated in several rallies and speeches throughout Georgia. Warnock has also been pleading with the people of Georgia to get out to vote. He has been using social media such as Facebook and Twitter, but he did something recently that should help him out mightily with younger voters in Georgia. He joined TikTok earlier this week, and this should help him with millennial and gen z voters. This quote from Richard Semiatan in Chapter 6 of Campaigns On The Cutting Edge reiterates how important digital media is in communicating with millennial and gen z voters, “Millennials are the largest living generation in the United States. Their primary means of communication is digital and in particular, texting.” Now while texting directly to potential voters could be a good thing for Warnock as well, I believe that him joining TikTok and using other forms of social media is a great way to communicate with the younger generation, who will be very important to the candidates in the upcoming midterms.
Something that has been noticeable about Warnock’s campaign is how bipartisan he has come across in many instances. Rarely referring to the President in rallies or speeches, he seems to know that acting as a bipartisan democrat in a mostly republican state, could win over some republican voters who would not be satisfied with Herschel Walker representing them in the senate. This has been similar to many other democratic candidates in battleground states for the upcoming midterm elections. Marisa Iati for the Washington Post wrote that “Whatever his (Biden’s) rhetoric, some Democratic candidates in battleground states have not been enthusiastic about campaigning with the president.” The president has not been popular with many in the last few months, which can in part be due to the rising inflation in the country. Also, with this, many in the state of Georgia may seem him as too liberal and that if Warnock campaigns with his support, it could hurt his chances with some Republican voters who would vote for him otherwise. Whatever the case, Warnock has not been talking much about the president and in my own opinion, that is the smart move if he wants to keep his seat in the senate.
Sullivan, Peter. “Warnock Pushes to Close Medicaid Coverage Gap amid Tough Reelection Battle.” The Hill, The Hill, 6 Aug. 2022, https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/3590443-warnock-pushes-for-medicaid-expansion-amid-tough-reelection-battle/.
“Warnock: Voting Rights Battle Is Why I Know 'I Still Have Work to Do' in Senate.” Yahoo!, Yahoo!, 29 Sept. 2022, https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/warnock-voting-rights-battle-why-010826022.html.
Iati, Marisa. “Biden Turns Urgently to Critical Task of Holding the Senate.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 12 Sept. 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/12/biden-pennsylvania-senate-race/?utm_campaign=wp_todays_headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_headlines&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37e640b%2F631f0349f3d9003c58d1bb34%2F5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c%2F42%2F57%2F631f0349f3d9003c58d1bb34&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83.
Semiatin, Richard J. “Chapter 6 Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future.” Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, 4th ed., CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA, 2021, pp. 85–86.
William Dean Get Out The Vote efforts (herein “GOTV”) are any method that candidates and political parties use to attempt to get their supporters to the polls on election day. Traditionally, GOTV efforts relied on a party-driven method wherein candidates “owed their allegiance to parties and… parties would then provide the organizational muscle…” (Semiatin). This included voter registration lists, mailing lists and radio ads among other things. However, candidate-driven politics emerged after the Kennedy campaign, whereafter the candidate became a celebrity-like figure, more important than the party they identified with. The model today is a hybrid system, “where parties…provide a basic organization of delivery systems for each campaign” while the candidates remain their own ambassadors to the public (ibid.). In recent news, Hurricane Ian has put a pause on campaign events in Florida. Rubio’s latest major campaign event was held in Brevard County on the weekend of September 17th-18th, where he “largely avoid[ed] the issue of former President Donald Trump,” instead drawing “attention to the stark fault lines between himself and his Democratic opponent” (Chapoco). Brevard County is a major population center in Florida, sitting on the coast just east of Orlando and home to more than one half million people. Information from the Supervisor of Elections shows that voter turnout in the County is much higher than usual at 80.31% and is a solid Republican area, with Trump outperforming Biden by roughly 16.5% in 2020 (Bobanic, 2020 General Election). Furthermore, Rubio won this county by 22% in his 2016 Senate campaign against Democrat Patrick Murphy (Bobanic, 2016 General Election). In place of campaign events, Rubio has appeared on CNN, ABC and Fox News over the past few days. During these appearances, Rubio has touted much-needed funding to rebuild Florida after Hurricane Ian. It seems that Rubio uses TV appearances instead of social media posts. Though he has not mentioned his candidacy in these segments, his mere presence on three major channels is a major benefit. His voting base is older on average, and older Americans tend to watch TV rather than engage on social media. One major endorsement Rubio received is from the Florida Police Benevolent Association, who opted for the “true champion for law and order” candidate over former Orlando police chief Val Demings (Leonard). And despite the fraught relationship between the two, Rubio received the endorsement of Donald Trump in April. Though the two vary wildly in attitude and policy ambitions, the endorsement is likely to help Rubio, given the President’s previously-mentioned election successes in the state.
Bobanic, Tim. 2016 General Election. 8 Nov. 2016, https://enr.electionsfl.org/BRE/1616/Summary/. ---. 2020 General Election. 13 Nov. 2020, https://enr.electionsfl.org/BRE/2771/Summary/. Chapoco, Ralph. “Sen. Marco Rubio Appeals for Brevard Voter Support on Issues of Culture Wars, Economy.” Florida Today, https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2022/09/23/rubio-demings-senate-race-desantis-fine-immigration-elections-trump-florida-brevard-congress/8085752001/. Accessed 3 Oct. 2022. Leonard, Kimberly. “‘Law and Order’ Is a Key Campaign Issue in Florida US Senate Race as Police-Backed Marco Rubio Faces Former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings.” Business Insider, https://www.businessinsider.com/rubio-gets-police-endorsements-in-race-against-former-police-chief-2022-5. Accessed 3 Oct. 2022. Semiatin, Richard J. “Chapter 6 Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future.” Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA, 2021.
Val Demings' use of GOTV is portrayed chiefly on social media, although she has given speeches on local news stations at the beginning of her campaign. She uses GOTV tactics on social media by trying to “change Florida for the better” by comparing herself to her competitor, Marco Rubio. She talks him down and talks herself up to try and make Floridians realize he is causing problems for Florida that she could fix. According to Richard J. Semiantin in Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, “...campaign staff use smartphones and tablets to research individual voter information.” (Semiantin, 81). She knows exactly what they want to see on her social media. Her voter engagement is present by having her followers comment supportive sayings on her posts but to make sure she is truly getting their vote, she goes with several mobilization strategies on social media. She talks a lot about prevalent issues that many new voters care about such as abortion rights, gun violence, and LGBTQ+ rights. She addresses all of these issues to ensure her voters are happy and heard in Florida since Marco Rubio’s views are very different. Her tactic of changing Florida is the main thing she uses for her campaign. Where her campaigns have been being held seems to me that it falls into the category of targeting specific voting blocs to ensure their votes. For example, she visited UMiami in order to get the votes of Generation Z. Demings said to The Miami Hurricane, “Soon my generation will not be leading for much longer, we need young, smart, energetic people to lead the way.” (Terr, The Miami Hurricane). By contacting this voting bloc directly, it contributes to her GOTV initiative. Her top talking points in her stump speeches include women's rights, abortion rights, gun control, crime, and more. In an article from CBS that talked about her traveling campaign, the author wrote, “She took to the stage saying she'll fight for women's rights and equal opportunities.” (Dyer, CBS). I have not found any information about Demings talking directly to her audience about voting rights, however, she does seem to care about it since she led a letter signed by other Democratic members of Florida’s Congressional Delegation in January. The letter entailed “a complete and thorough investigation by the Department of Justice to identify and stop any other patterns of voter suppression.” (Demings, Press Release). She also “cited the need to keep politics out of criminal investigations of voting integrity.” (Demings, Press Release). Demings has been previously involved with Joe Biden as she was a potential running mate for him in the 2020 election but for the midterm elections, she has disconnected with him. An article from The Washington Post writes, “Some Democratic candidates in battleground states have not been enthusiastic about campaigning with the president.” (Iati, The Washington Post). Demings happens to be one of those candidates as Florida is a battleground state. Biden came to Florida last week to campaign with Charlie Crist in Demings’ hometown, Orlando, and Demings was not there to meet him. It is said by an article from NBC News that “Crist needs Biden to at least get free media exposure,” (Caputo and Korecki, NBC News) and this could be why Demings did not meet with him because she has the media coverage she already needs. She seems to be doing something right with her campaign as she is consistently receiving online engagement and support in person.
References Caputo, Marc, and Natasha Korecki. "Democratic Divide In Florida: Desantis Challenger To Rally With Biden, But Senate Candidate Won't". NBC News, 2022, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/democratic-divide-florida-desantis-challenger-rally-biden-senate-candi-rcna48829. Demings, Val. "REP. DEMINGS LEADS CALL FOR DOJ REVIEW TO SECURE FLORIDA VOTING RIGHTS". Demings House, 2022, https://demings.house.gov/media/press-releases/rep-demings-leads-call-doj-review-secure-florida-voting-rights. Dyer, Ashley. "Val Demmings, Charlie Crist Make Campaign Stops In Miami-Dade". Cbsnews.Com, 2022, https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/val-demmings-charlie-crist-make-campaign-stops-in-miami/. Iati, Marisa. "Biden Turns Urgently To Critical Task Of Holding The Senate". The Washington Post, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/12/biden-pennsylvania-senate-race/?utm_campaign=wp_todays_headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_headlines&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37e640b%2F631f0349f3d9003c58d1bb34%2F5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c%2F42%2F57%2F631f0349f3d9003c58d1bb34&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83. Semiatin, Richard J. "Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future." Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, edited by Semiatin, 4th ed., CQ Press, 2013, pp. 81. Terr, Alex. "Florida Congresswoman Val Demings Visits UM On U.S. Senate Campaign Trail". The Miami Hurricane, 2022, https://www.themiamihurricane.com/2022/09/07/florida-congresswoman-val-demings-visits-um-on-u-s-senate-campaign-trail/.
As noted by Richard Semiatin, “the key to any get-out-the-vote (GOTV) program relies on getting your base out to the polls and voters who match the profile of support for your candidate” (Semiatin, 80) though are not traditional voters. When looking at John Fetterman’s Senate campaign, we can see his efforts are targeting many of the newly registered female voters in Pennsylvania. According to the York Dispatch, since the overturning of Roe V. Wade, 56% of new registrations are women. Fetterman has been targeting these voters by focusing on abortion, the issue that theoretically spurred their registration in the first place. If Fetterman can turn these voters out, they will make up a key part in their winning coalition. Therefore Fetterman has made abortion one of the main talking points of his campaign. Other top talking points are his support for unions and semi-protectionist trade rhetoric which also serves to target working-class voters that Fetterman counts as key to his winning coalition. Fetterman, since his primary election has been campaigning across the state. In fact, he made visiting every county in PA a cornerstone of his campaign messaging and strategy. While during the primary he stuck to doing mostly small meetings, in the general election Fetterman transitioned to doing large rallies with his supporters. Just last week, Fetterman did his first event in Philadelphia which was a large rally. This choice shows his campaigns need to turn out Black voters, as Philadelphia is where many of the state’s Black residents reside. It being his first event there shows that he is not just focusing on cities as Democrats sometimes do but spending real time in the industrial and rural center of the state. Though, I would agree that late September is far too late for Fetterman to be making his first appearance in Philly. Especially since Black voters often feel forgotten by politicians, of course, Republicans but even more stinging by the Democrats their votes put into office Regarding election integrity, Fetterman has tried to tie Oz to former President Trump’s claims the election was stolen. He has demanded Oz reveal how he would vote if Trump challenged the results in 2024 as he did in 2020. This strategy follows what other Democrats are doing around the country in their own respective races. Fetterman has not made this a cornerstone of his campaign, instead focusing on bread-and-butter economic issues and abortion. Fetterman has involved President Biden in his campaign. Around Labor Day Biden did 3 rallies with Fetterman and then on Labor Day, did an event with Fetterman in support of the United Steelworkers Union. Though Biden is a relatively unpopular president, these events are guaranteed press for the Fetterman campaign. In addition, doing an event with the sitting president with a union shows not just a steadfast commitment on Fetterman’s part to unions, but also the degree to which he needs to get them to turn out on November 8th.
Get Out The Vote programs have shown to generate more turnout, however, stump campaigning is the best GOTV tactic for candidates to ensure voters are excited about getting out to the polls. Stump campaigning is when political candidates travel around the country making many appearances relaying the same message. Stump campaign allows parties from various backgrounds and areas to support the same values and issues they deem important. Creating this unity within a party is the best way to GOTV. In Campaigns on The Cutting Edge, Richard Semiatin said, “The sense of connection is most critical for GOTV. While studies can show why early GOVT may not be as effective as later in the campaign, the fact is that political parties will need to establish a bond with voters before asking for their vote. The GOVT effort in the future should subsume not that voting messages or alarms will consistently generate turnout, but rather that turnout is part of a longer process tied to the policies and commitments of a political party and its candidates” (Semiatin 94). Val Demings has shown great efforts to maintain her voter engagement and stay mobile throughout her campaign, even missing an opportunity to campaign alongside the president in her hometown. The article “Val Demings Skips Biden Rally to Focus on Defeating Florida Republicans” in Newsweek said “President Joe Biden is headed to Demings' hometown on Tuesday to stump for Charlie Crist, the Democrat looking to unseat DeSantis, in a battleground state that has become increasingly Republican. But Demings, who currently serves in the House, won't be in Florida to meet with the president in the final weeks leading up to Election Day. Instead, the congresswoman will remain in Washington, D.C., per her campaign. Demings isn't avoiding Biden or his support, it's just that campaigning alongside the president isn't a priority” (Fung). Demings has not only been campaigning in Washington, D.C., but also all throughout Florida including Miami, Doral, Tamarac, and numerous other towns. Val Deming's campaigns are usually smaller rallies of about 100 or so people. According to the article “Val Demings Stumps in South Florida” in The Miami Times, Val Deming's most recent stump campaign's top topics were affordable housing and gun violence, specifically pressing her opponent’s inaction to address them. Val Demings has been able to fall back on Joe Biden as a key endorser as she was one of his potential running mates for the 2020 presidential election. However, going back to the previous article from Newsweek the two politicians have been growing distant. In the article “Biden Turns Urgently to Critical Task of Holding the Senate” in the Washington Post, it said “During Biden’s trips to Pittsburgh and Milwaukee on Labor Day, some Democratic hopefuls appeared by his side, while others were absent. In Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat vying for a U.S. Senate seat, joined Biden at a union hall, although gubernatorial hopeful Josh Shapiro was elsewhere” (Iati), showing many democrats are losing a sense of respect and regard when it comes to President Biden. While there seems to be no problem between Val Demings and the Current president, Demings could be jumping on the bandwagon of keeping her distance from Biden for the sake of her campaign.
“Val Demings Stumps in South Florida.” The Miami Times, 3 Aug. 2022, https://www.miamitimesonline.com/news/local/val-demings-stumps-in-south-florida/article_25e3d1e8-130d-11ed-b823-17f401bce81d.html. Fung, Katherine. “Val Demings Skips Biden Rally to Focus on Defeating Florida Republicans.” Newsweek, Newsweek, 22 Sept. 2022, https://www.newsweek.com/val-demings-skips-joe-biden-charlie-crist-rally-focus-ron-desantis-1745496. Iati, Marisa. “Biden Turns Urgently to Critical Task of Holding the Senate.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 12 Sept. 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/12/biden-pennsylvania-senate-race/?utm_campaign=wp_todays_headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_headlines&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37e640b%2F631f0349f3d9003c58d1bb34%2F5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c%2F42%2F57%2F631f0349f3d9003c58d1bb34&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83. Semiatin, Richard J. "Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future." Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, edited by Semiatin, 4th ed., CQ Press, 2013, pp. 81. Terr, Alex. "Florida Congresswoman Val Demings Visits UM On U.S. Senate Campaign Trail". The Miami Hurricane, 2022, https://www.themiamihurricane.com/2022/09/07/florida-congresswoman-val-demings-visits-um-on-u-s-senate-campaign-trail/.
When looking at the campaign of Herschel Walker, one can tell that his get out the vote tactic is, like many other Republican candidates during this cycle, based on the idea that he can be a “mini-Trump” with the way he speaks and handles issues. That is simply what it all boils down to. Can you, as a candidate, be Trump-like enough to gain the approval of his following? While researching for this blog post, I read the article “Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-Edged Sword” from the Washington Post. One segment that really stood out to me was discussing Trump as a campaign asset, “‘There is a world in where he’s helpful,’ one prominent Republican said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to assess the situation more freely. ‘Republicans don’t win if we don’t turn out the Trump voter. That’s just the truth. What we have to do is turn out the Trump voter while not having him turn off everyone else’” (Arnsdorf et al.). The fact that Walker has been endorsed by Former President Trump is a benefit to him, as that name being associated with Walker might be enough to get people to vote for him, alongside the fact he is the Republican nominee. Looking at Walker’s campaign events through the eyes of the traditional media as well as his social media, I can easily see a pattern with what he wants to accomplish. He has a tendency to meet with smaller groups of highly concentrated voting blocs, such as Asian-Americans, veterans, and women, among others (just a few from his recent social media posts). While this can prove to be positive for Walker, sometimes I wonder if he’s doing it correctly. In mid-September, Walker hosted an event with women voters in Augusta. That sentence on its own is great. He is campaigning to a crucial demographic in an area his Republican candidate lost by over 39 points in the 2021 runoff. However, I think he went about it wrong. Walker marketed the rally in question as “Women for Herschel,” a move that can prove to make the whole thing worthless. I already established this is a crucial group in an area he needs to win, but calling it “Women for Herschel” leads me to believe that the only people in attendance will be those who are already planning to vote for him in November. However, at the event in Augusta, he laid out his entire stump campaign. Honestly, after reading it, I can’t see how it would be any different. An article on the event said, “They spoke on issues like Critical Race Theory as well as safety in schools. ‘They ask me why I'm running: this economy, crime, separation, in your schools…they are trying to teach young kids about how to identify.’ A topic he believes, shouldn’t be addressed in the classroom” (Edwards). He hit nearly all the modern Republican talking points, which above all else, will make or break his campaign.
To begin the conclusion of my post, I would like to talk about yard signs. In “Chapter 6 Voter Registration: An Unexpected Future” of the book “Campaigns on the Cutting Edge” by Richard Semiatin, he talked about how the comeback of the candidate yard signs has made a difference in recent political campaigns. If we’re taking that into consideration, I don’t think voter access and integrity is going to matter for Walker. In the recent New York Times article “The Racial Divide Herschel Walker Couldn’t Outrun” by John Branch (one of the best articles I’ve ever read), he leads off the piece by describing the amount of Herschel Walker yard signs there are in his hometown of Wrightsville, Georgia. To sum it up, almost only white people and Walker’s family have yard signs of him. If Walker can’t even mobilize the black vote in his own hometown, then how can he expect to win the election?
Works Cited
Arnsdorf, Isaac, et al. “Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-Edged Sword.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 3 Sept. 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/03/trump-midterms-pennsylvania/?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_evening&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37d3d04%2F6313c069ab732227d00943dc%2F5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c%2F15%2F47%2F6313c069ab732227d00943dc&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83. Branch, John. “The Racial Divide Herschel Walker Couldn't Outrun.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 2 Oct. 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/02/us/politics/herschel-walker-georgia-senate-race.html. Edwards, Ansleigh. “U.S. Senate Candidate Herschel Walker Speaks At.” WFXG, 14 Sept. 2022, https://www.wfxg.com/story/47287235/us-senate-candidate-herschel-walker-speaks-at-women-for-herschel-rally-in-augusta. Semiatin, Richard J., and Richard J. Semiatin. “Chapter 6 Voter Registration: An Unexpected Future.” Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA, 2021, pp. 80–100.
Cj Benedetti Stump campaigning has been vital to the success of a campaign since campaigning began. They started as a necessity to get the message out to as many voters as possible when the news was still slow traveling and has stayed a constant and ever-changing part of a campaign. The only time you could argue that it was dead is during the 2020 election cycle when COVID essentially shut down the world. Even then though candidates still tried the virtual way to stump campaigning. I personally know that Joe Biden tried and sometimes succeeded in hosting virtual town halls for some of his supporters. Moving forward 2 years, the mask mandates are lifted, and life is making its way ever so closer to normals, and that means so is Stump Campaigning. Marco Rubio is making stops along the east side of Florida, just on the outskirts of cities. Right now, he has stopped in specifically Melbourne and other stops in Brevard County, which is just outside of Orlando in September after coming from Jacksonville in August after being on the West Coast in Tampa earlier in the month. The stop in Tampa wasn't a one-on-one event, or even specifically for Rubio but more a kick-off for all republicans campaigning in Florida “Along with DeSantis, Rubio and Nuñez, Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody, Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis and Sen. Wilton Simpson, who is running for agriculture commissioner, spoke at the event” (Ellenbogen). This was somewhat the same in Jacksonville as Rubio was alongside Governor Desantis (Johnson). The stops in Brevard and Melbourne were much smaller and gave supporters a closer look at the candidate and interactions with him (Bailey). One thing to note about Marco Rubio's stop in Brevard is that it was also a GOTV stop. As the registration for the country comes ever closer, he was encouraging voters to register if they weren’t yet. As said by Semiatin, “Increasing party registration is key for any voter mobilization effort” and “There is no mistaking that voter registration is highly predictive of who turns out on Election Day” (Semiatin). These efforts by Rubio to increase registration and therefore increase voter turnout and hugely important in a race where his opponent had been gaining on him steadily until recently. Marco Rubio has also received a major endorsement from Former President Donald Trump, but I believe he shares the sentiment of many in that it can be a blessing or a curse. Rubio, so far, has handled the situation with grace, saying “his reelection won’t sink or swim because of Trump, insisting voters will judge his own record. Yet he’s careful not to criticize the former President – whether it’s on Trump’s recent suggestion to pardon the January 6 rioters, his removal of boxes of White House records to Mar-a-Lago or even the incessant conspiracies and lies about the 2020 election being stolen.” So he is graceful in acceptance of the Endorsement, but also not flashing or flaunting it around during his campaign. As said in “Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOD as Double-Edged Sword” by Isaac Arnsdorf, “Republicans privately say the reality is more complicated than most candidates are eager to admit. In the primary, Trump’s endorsement and the boost from a rally with him were the envy of all. In the general, though, Trump’s impact is decidedly more mixed. Especially in places where Republicans are hoping to make inroads into Democratic territory, Trump’s intervention is less welcome” (Arnsdorf et al).
Arnsdorf, Isaac, et al. “Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-Edged Sword.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 5 Sept. 2022, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/03/trump-midterms-pennsylvania/. Bailey, Craig. “Marco Rubio Campaign Stop in Melbourne.” Marco Rubio Campaigns in Melbourne, Florida Today, 18 Sept. 2022, www.floridatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/local/2022/09/18/marco-rubio-campaigns-melbourne/10417133002/. Ellenbogen, Romy. “At Republican Rally in Tampa, Desantis Supports Candidates up and down the Ticket.” Tampa Bay Times, Tampa Bay Times, 25 Aug. 2022, www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2022/08/24/at-republican-rally-in-tampa-desantis-supports-candidates-up-and-down-the-ticket/. Johnson, Scott. “DeSantis, Rubio Hit Campaign Trail with Stop at Diamond D Ranch in Jacksonville.” WJXT, WJXT News4JAX, 25 Aug. 2022, www.news4jax.com/vote-2022/2022/08/25/desantis-rubio-hit-campaign-trail-with-stop-at-diamond-d-ranch-in-jacksonville/. Semiatin, Richard J. “Voter Mobilization.” Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, by Richard J. Semiatin, CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., 2021, pp. 80–99.
Stump campaigning can be an effective strategy for politicians to share their general views and get the attention of voters in different areas. Herschel Walker has been campaigning mostly in the already red cities and towns of Georgia, avoiding blue cities like Atlanta so far, but it could still be effective. Walker’s get out of the vote tactic is very heavily based on Trump. By visiting these rural, red places in Georgia, having a Trump endorsement and using stump speeches could actually be the road for Walker to win. In an article earlier this year in the New York Times titled “Amid Campaign Revamp, Herschel Walker Stumps Without a Stumble,” explains that Walker did exactly what he had to do during one of his stump speeches. Stick to the script, don’t make mistakes and avoid damaging his reputation any further. An uneventful speech is a good speech for Walker.
In these speeches by Walker, he mainly talks about policies and a lot about the agriculture of Georgia, which has always been something he’s been in support of during his campaign. In an article by 11 Alive titled “Georgia's Herschel Walker skips details in bid to oust Raphael Warnock in Senate race: Report,” it says that Walker has been prioritizing aid to farmers and cutting environment regulations. This makes sense for Walker since the places he is campaigning have a high population of farmers and people who live in rural Georgia. Walker could not make the same stump speech in Atlanta or Savannah and be successful.
Voter access and integrity is extremely important, especially for this Georgia midterm election. According to Jeffrey Crouch in “Chapter 11: Voter Identification Laws and Ballot Access and Measures” in the book titled “Campaigns on the Cutting Edge” by Richard J. Semiatin, Georgia passed a state law in 2017 that could actually play an important role in the 2022 midterm election. The law states “potential voter’s personal identification has to exactly match state records in order to complete the individual’s voter registration process.” This law has a disproportionate impact on the African American people in Georgia who may not be able to vote. Although both candidates are black, we can assume based on many, many reasons, that these would-be voters would choose to vote for Warnock. Outside of that law, voter integrity is extremely important, especially when recalling the events following the 2020 presidential election. The events of January 6th, 2021 can be traced back to Donald Trump claiming voter fraud in the 2020 election, in which his millions of followers still believe to this day.
Trump also has his hands all over the 2022 midterm elections. In an article in the Washington Post titled “Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-Edged Sword,” where it says that Trump’s political advisors want him to start getting involved with Republican campaigns, even showing up to rallies in-person. Walker has been using his Trump endorsement to get many of his followers to support him in his upcoming election. In fact, it is what I believe is mainly keeping him afloat in this race. As Trump gets more involved, I expect Walker to have him appear at a few of his rallies, taking his Trump endorsement to the next level. Although Trump has been a key piece of his campaign so far, it will be interesting to see if Trump can actually hurt his campaign, rather than help.
Works Cited: Arnsdorf, Isaac, et al. “Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-Edged Sword.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 5 Sept. 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/03/trump-midterms-pennsylvania/?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_evening&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37d3d04%2F6313c069ab732227d00943dc%2F5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c%2F15%2F47%2F6313c069ab732227d00943dc&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83. Crouch, Jeffrey. “Chapter 11: Voter Identification Laws and Ballot Access Measures.” In “The 2020 Presidential Campaign: A Communications Perspective” Edited by Robert E. Denton, Rowman & Littlefield, 2021. Accessed October 2nd, 2022. King, Maya. “Amid Campaign Revamp, Herschel Walker Stumps without a Stumble.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 19 July 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/us/politics/herschel-walker-campaign.html. Press, Associated. “Georgia's Herschel Walker Skips Details in Bid to Oust Raphael Warnock in Senate Race: Report.” 11Alive.Com, 28 Aug. 2022, https://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/georgias-herschel-walker-campaign-stops/85-1a2815f1-a648-46a0-ba04-5ad17b56da60.
As the son of someone who has run for political office multiple times, I understand the importance of stump speeches and get out the vote tactics more than many. Though from an insiders perspective, I don’t think stump speeches work as well as candidates think they do, but from a prospective voters standpoint, who only listens to the speech a few times, they can be very effective. By the time the 2020 election rolled around, I had pretty much my mom’s entire stump speech memorized because I had heard it so many times. In hindsight, that probably means the speech was effective, but I digress.
In the case of Herschel Walker and large, state-wide races – especially in Georgia – GOTV campaigns are essential to winning a race and is a big reason Warnock won this race in 2020. In Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, Richard Semiatin explains that getting out the vote is more than just getting your base of registered voters out to the polls. “The results from 2016 point out that the key to any get-out-the-vote (GOTV) program relies on getting your base out to the polls and voters who match the profile of support for your candidate but who may not be thought of as traditional base voters. The discussion often neglects to mention the role that voter registration plays in this endeavor” (Semiatin). In 2020, the senate would not have been flipped without the initiatives of Stacy Abrams to register new voters. After losing the gubernatorial race by just 1.4%, Abrams knew that she had to mobilize the bloc of disincentivized black voters. According to a Politico report, “Her [Abrams] campaign and its allies registered more than 200,000 new voters in the run-up to the 2018 election. When Fair Fight and the New Georgia Project, two organizations founded by Abrams, tried again this year, they quadrupled their gains, registering more than 800,000 new voters” (King Politico). By registering over 1 million voters over those few years, she was able to close that 1.4 percent, and elect President Biden, Sen Ossoff, and Sen. Warnock – the first time Georgia had gone blue for president since 1992.
In terms of stump campaigning, Herschel Walker has not had the easiest go at it. In mid-July, a report from the New York Times (it happens to be the same reporter from the 2018 Politico Report) had a story about a successful stump speech. Yes, a successful stump speech. Walker has been ridden with gaffs, and misspoken lines throughout his stump campaigning leading to loads of criticism. Maya King articulated this better than anyone: “That seeming nonstory was actually news, given how Mr. Walker’s candidacy has been going recently, and it appeared to reflect the labors of a team of Republican operatives who have swooped in to turn around his campaign, after a string of unforced errors called into question his readiness for political prime time” (King NYT).
Another big thing that Walker is relying on is his Trump endorsement. Though the effectiveness of the Trump endorsement can vary based on the campaign circumstances, Walker is using this to his advantage. The Washington Post reported in early September that Trump’s “political advisers are in early discussions with Republican campaigns about actively deploying him on the trail this fall” (WaPo). Only the results at the polls will tell how effective this is, but Trumps involvement is definitely a large component to the 2022 midterms.
Arnsdorf, Isaac, et al. “Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-Edged Sword.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 5 Sept. 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/03/trump-midterms-pennsylvania/?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_evening&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37d3d04%2F6313c069ab732227d00943dc%2F5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c%2F15%2F47%2F6313c069ab732227d00943dc&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83.
King, Maya. “Amid Campaign Revamp, Herschel Walker Stumps without a Stumble.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 19 July 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/us/politics/herschel-walker-campaign.html. King, Maya. “How Stacey Abrams and Her Band of Believers Turned Georgia Blue.” POLITICO, 8 Nov. 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/08/stacey-abrams-believers-georgia-blue-434985.
Semiatin, Richard J. “Chapter 6 Survey Research and Campaigns: Challenges and Opportunities.” Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, 4th ed., CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA, 2021, pp. 65–79.
Caitlyn Piascik
ReplyDeleteStump campaigning is an essential part of campaigning that presents a prime opportunity for potential voters to meet candidate’s and for the candidates draw these voters out to the polls in support. This type of campaigning provides additional exposure to a candidate and allows for a larger portion of the population to engage with them. President Trump was notorious for his stumping across the United States with his extravagant rallies targeting Republicans. According to The Washington Post, “The conversations have included trips to Arizona, districts on the southern border, some parts of Texas, many places in Florida, select areas of Georgia, areas in North Carolina and Ohio and the western side of Pennsylvania. The targeted approach reflects a shared interest in calibrating Trump’s interventions to capitalize on his enduring appeal with Republicans but avoid alienating swing voters” (Arnsdorf et. al). This allowed him to garner a real connection with this demographic – who also proved to be extremely loyal voters who wanted him to rerun again in 2024. According to Richard Semiatin, “By creating a safe space for these supporters, the Trump campaign wanted to turn this traditional low-turnout bloc into a high-turnout bloc of voters” (Semiatin). Thus, displaying how stump campaigning may draw out voters who may not have been as active before.
Candidate Raphael Warnock has been stumping primarily around his home state, Georgia. He mainly holds large rallies in key areas like Savannah, Albany, Columbus and Midway, GA, in order to draw out these rural voters. Warnock’s top talking points in his stump speeches include the right to access affordable health care, rebuilding an economy that creates and protects more jobs for the citizens of Georgia, voting rights, criminal justice reform and education. He appears to target the rural sections of Georgia in order to ensure that all citizens of Georgia can cast a vote – preferably in support of him. Given the state of the economy in Georgia, voting access can come into question when thinking about where these candidates choose to stump. Voting access or integrity is an extremely important topic because free and fair elections are a foundational part of political freedom and every individual is entitled to a vote within our democracy. It is important to ensure that every citizens votes are being cast and they are being counted correctly in order to ensure sound results that ‘the people’ decided upon.
I do not believe that Raphael Warnock is including any key endorsements, like Biden, in his strategy because Biden’s presidential approval rating has been historically low. Therefore, I don’t think he wanted Biden’s negative approval rating to impact his campaign in a negative way. It was recorded that Biden endorsed Warnock in 2020, however nothing following 2022.
Piascik Works Cited
DeleteArnsdorf, Isaac, et al. "Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-edged
Sword." The Washington Post, 3 Sept. 2022, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/03/ trump-midtermspennsylvania/?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_evening&carta-url=https://s2.washingtonpost.com/car-ln-tr/37d3d04/6313c069ab732227d00943dc/5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c/15/47/6313c069ab732227d00943dc&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83. Accessed 28 Sept. 2022.
Carey, Adam. "Sen. Raphael Warnock Talks Jobs, Healthcare in Rome." Rome News-Tribune, 31
Aug. 2022, www.northwestgeorgianews.com/rome/news/local/sen-raphael-warnock-talks-jobs-healthcare-in-rome/article_813e96f4-2965-11ed-9197-4f9d73335737.html. Accessed 28 Sept. 2022.
Semiatin, Richard J. "Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future." Campaigns on the Cutting
Edge, edited by Semiatin, 4th ed., CQ Press, 2013, pp. 80-99.
"Reverend Raphael Warnock U.S. Senate Issues." Warnock For
Georgia, APOLLO, warnockforgeorgia.com/issues/. Accessed 28 Sept. 2022.
Stump campaigning is possibly the most important event that a candidate can do during a race. It allows for the candidate to get their message out to a potential group of voters and get the existing base excited to vote for the candidate. John Fetterman has been no stranger to stump campaigning. While he hasn't done as many as his opponent Dr. Oz because he is still recovering from a stroke. He is doing his best to visit all counties in Pennsylvania regardless if they lean democratic or republican to get as many votes as possible. He hasn’t been featuring any surrogates and it's mainly been him doing a speech to the best of his ability.
ReplyDeleteThe main two topics he discusses are his pro-abortion and pro-union policy positions and attacking his opponent Dr. Oz. These rallies have led to Fetterman receiving a mix of both positive and negative media coverage. A more positive example can be seen from CNN where they write “A long line of voters had gathered outside of the Bayfront Convention Center with an air of excitement before the candidate took the stage, eager to hear the Democrat speak” (McKend, Merica, and Janfaza, paragraph 12). Here they highlighted the energy and passion Fetterman’s voters have for him even when he isn’t on stage. A more negative example can be seen from Townhall.com where they write “when he does show up at rare campaign events, it's for just a few minutes. Usually wearing an oversized sweatshirt and basketball shorts, his appearance is sloppy. His words are even more incoherent and usually Democrat friendly media outlets are starting to take notice” (Palvich paragraph 2). While the praise and criticism of his rallies has largely been down partisan lines. These rallies still get his message out effectively. As people will clip parts of his speech and will post them all over social media, specifically twitter. According to a study from Pew Research, they write “62% of tweets that the Center’s analysis identified as political were retweets, with no additional text from the user who shared them. That was significantly higher than the share of retweets in nonpolitical tweets posted by U.S. adults (38%)” (Bestvater and Shah, paragraph 3). This means that even people simply re-posting clips from his rallies can be very beneficial in order to excite or reach new voters.
However, one topic that John Fetterman surprisingly doesn’t talk about is voter access/rights. Ever since 2020 the topic of voting rights and accessibility has been a huge topic, especially among democratic voters (voting disenfranchisement specifically). According to the book Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, they write “In a poll by the Public Religion Research Institute, 64 percent of Democrats found avoiding disenfranchisement to be a more important value than preventing voter fraud" (Nelson, page 182). This is a major issue that Fetterman isn’t capitalizing on. If he can, this could be the final push he needs to beat Dr. Oz who has been closing the gap in the recent polls.
Works Cited:
DeleteBestvater, Samuel, and Sono Shah. “5 Facts about Political Tweets Shared by U.S. Adults.” Pew Research Center, Pew Research Center, 30 June 2022, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/06/30/5-facts-about-political-tweets-shared-by-u-s-adults/.
Candice, Nelson J. “‘Chapter 11 Voter Identification Laws and Ballot Access Measures.’” Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., Thousand Oaks, Ca, 2021, pp. 176–189.
McKend, Eva, et al. “'So Grateful to Be Here Tonight': John Fetterman Returns to Campaign Trail after Suffering Stroke in May | CNN Politics.” CNN, Cable News Network, 13 Aug. 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/12/politics/fetterman-return-campaign-trail-stroke/index.html.
Pavlich, Katie. “Even CNN Is Noticing Fetterman's Incoherent Campaigning.” Townhall, Townhall.com, 25 Aug. 2022, https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2022/08/25/even-cnn-is-noticing-fettermans-incoherent-campaigning-n2612241.
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ReplyDeleteBlog 5
ReplyDeleteStump campaigning is important to a candidate’s GOTV strategy as it is an easy and digestible way of communicating a candidate’s stance on policies. These stump speeches are vital for when a candidate is on the campaign trail as they quickly relay the policies and ideas of the candidate.
Fetterman’s strategy for voter engagement is to project himself as a populist figure (Kapur). He has a mix of stances that mostly are left-leaning and appeal to primarily blue areas, yet he also has some stances that would appeal to red counties. This plays somewhat into his stump speeches which seem to revolve around recognizing all of Pennsylvania and all of its citizens, not just the major cities. I believe he is specifically campaigning in red counties around Pennsylvania because of an increase in the “rural and small city” voter count (Semiatin 88). Former President Trump targeted his campaign toward people from these rural and low-income areas that have been alienated and forgotten by society. Hillary Clinton did not account for this when campaigning, and I suspect Fetterman does not want to make the same mistake. While somewhat uninspired, his campaign slogan, “Every Vote, Every County, " drives that popular image forward.
As for the red counties he has been campaigning in, the most important one seems to be Indiana County. According to a chair member of the Indiana County Democrats, Jamie Smith, “If you’re going to the big rallies in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Scranton, that’s great — but where you really pick up ground are those 400, 500 and 1,000-people rallies you have in places like Indiana” (Routh). The stump speeches he gives in these areas seem to revolve around how his opponent, Mehmet Oz, lacks the knowledge, dedication, and personal connection to Pennsylvania. He also touches on healthcare, specifically women’s healthcare, and abortion. While poking fun at Mehmet Oz seems to be effective, I think he spends too much time doing this and would be better off addressing issues like the economic crisis will land with more people rather than just saying Oz is out of place. Joel Sears, a republican from Western Pennsylvania stresses the need for all candidates to talk about property tax burdens (Dunklau). I feel like a lot of Fetterman’s stump speeches boil down to taking shots at Oz and talking about his own health. While they seem to be effective, I think he should maybe focus on issues that concern the people in the red counties he’s trying to connect with. I think being a former mayor of an economically struggling town, he should be able to connect to the voters there more than Oz could.
Fetterman does seem to imply that voter access is an important topic with his slogan, but I have not found any records of him specifically mentioning it in a stump speech. He also doesn’t seem to have any major endorsements from people like Biden which probably does him favors when campaigning in red areas.
Works Cited
Semiatin, Richard J. "Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future." Campaigns on the Cutting
Edge, edited by Semiatin, 4th ed., CQ Press, 2013, pp. 80-99.
Dunklau, Sam. “Pennsylvania Primary Voters Turned out in Record Numbers. Here's What Drew Some to the Polls.” 90.5 WESA, WESA, 30 June 2022, https://www.wesa.fm/politics-government/2022-06-30/pennsylvania-primary-voters-turned-out-in-record-numbers-heres-what-drew-some-to-the-polls.
Kapur, Sahil. “Fetterman's Plan to Win Pennsylvania: Taking His Populist Message to Trump Country.” NBCNews.com, NBCUniversal News Group, 18 May 2022, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/john-fetterman-charts-unconventional-path-flip-senate-seat-democrats-rcna29349.
Routh, Julian. “John Fetterman Reaffirms Commitment to Rural Pa. Communities during Rally at IUP.” Gazette, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 29 Sept. 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-state/2022/09/20/john-fetterman-senate-campaign-rally-indiana-university-of-pennsylvania-democrat-vs-oz-stroke-health-rural/stories/202209200116.
Jennifer Moglia
ReplyDeleteStump campaigning is a crucial part of a successful campaign, as it helps potential voters get a sense of what the candidate’s general platform is. I like the explanation of it as an elevator pitch of sorts for a politician, a speech that they give repeatedly on multiple stops of the campaign trail to communicate their stances to voters. Herschel Walker has mainly been campaigning in areas of Georgia that already voted red in the 2020 presidential election. He has not done a lot of campaigning in the big cities in the state, such as Atlanta, Savannah, and Athens. For example, this summer he had an event in Ocilla, which is three hours away from Atlanta. (King) Walker’s debate against Raphael Warnock will be taking place in Savannah on October 14th which could get him some more support there, but he really should be focusing on winning over voters that haven’t already been voting republican over the last few years.
His events appear to be mainly rallies and speeches with large audiences. His main talking point is race. In almost all of his speeches, he makes a point to say that he loves everyone equally, regardless of the color of their skin. He also talks about how the democratic party is politicizing race and using it to divide the country. Walker even compared racism to a pre-existing condition, language that was used at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. (Richards) He has also performed speeches where he loosely claimed that he knew a cure for COVID-19, but he has not expanded upon that since. (Associated Press) Walker’s other biggest stump speech topic is President Joe Biden and how he is failing the country. The Georgian frequently slams Biden and Warnock in speeches, shaming his opponent for his allegiance to the current president. (King)
Walker has not mentioned voting access/integrity very much, but I think it’s a very important topic. The first line of Chapter 11 of Campaigns on the Cutting Edge explains that voters’ personal identification information must match that of their state records in order to be able to vote. This law is in place in Georgia, making it relevant to the race that I’m following between Warnock and Walker. These voter ID laws can certainly influence who can and cannot vote. For example, immigrant voters may be disproportionately impacted by policies like this because they may be waiting on certain documentation or have problems with their identification. It came as no surprise to me that the chapter stated that republican politicians, who are often in favor of closed borders and immigration control, are in favor of these voter ID laws. It definitely feels like there’s some sort of bigotry laced throughout that. This could potentially be a bad look for Walker, as he is trying to win over people of color since both candidates in his race are black men.
Another notable republican, former president Donald Trump, is also in support of Walker. He has endorsed him multiple times, in the media and on his Truth Social platform, going as far as calling him a “shining star.” Walker’s strategy is similar to that of Trump’s a few years ago, targeting Biden and the republican party. (Arnsdorf, Scherer, Dawsey) It still remains to be seen whether or not this Trump endorsement will be a strength or a weakness for Walker.
Jennifer Moglia Works Cited
DeleteArnsdorf, Isaac, Dawsey, Josh, and Scherer, Michael. “Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-Edged Sword.” The Washington Post. 3 September, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/03/trump-midterms-pennsylvania/?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_evening&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37d3d04%2F6313c069ab732227d00943dc%2F5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c%2F15%2F47%2F6313c069ab732227d00943dc&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83. Accessed October 2nd, 2022.
Barrow, Bill. “Herschel Walker skips details in bid to oust Raphael Warnock.” Associated Press News. 26 August, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-biden-inflation-congress-f8dcede99c2a528f6c88630f34144dcc. Accessed October 2nd, 2022.
Crouch, Jeffrey. “Chapter 11: Voter Identification Laws and Ballot Access Measures.” In “The 2020 Presidential Campaign: A Communications Perspective” Edited by Robert E. Denton, Rowman & Littlefield, 2021. Accessed October 2nd, 2022.
King, Maya. “Amid Campaign Revamp, Herschel Walker Stumps Without a Stumble.” The New York Times. 19 July, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/us/politics/herschel-walker-campaign.html. Accessed October 2nd, 2022.
Richards, Doug. “On the stump and in ads, Herschel Walker talks race.” 11 Alive. 7 September, 2022, https://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/herschel-walker-senate-candidate-race-conversations-new-ad/85-6c5e4011-2fc0-4712-9e2f-7b62b8e499e3. Accessed October 2nd, 2022.
Get Out the Vote efforts have changed drastically over the past decade. The digital age and improved technologies have both complicated and improved voter registrations systems and campaign microtargeting. Semiatin lays out the key to GOTV programs referencing the 2016 presidential election, stating that "the results from 2016 point out that the key to any get-out-the-vote (GOTV) program relies on getting your base out to the polls and voters who match the profile of support for your candidate but who may not be thought of as traditional base voters" (Semiatin 80). Dr. Oz has done a lackluster job stump campaigning. His methods have frequently changed and he’s yet to establish a consistent image with voters. Although initially riding on his Trump endorsement, Oz has since pulled back this marketable aspect in hopes to target undecided and independent voters. Vanity Fair found that “In a review of more than a dozen radio, TV, and public appearances that Oz has conducted since securing the nomination, he appears to have only mentioned Trump when directly asked about him, opting instead to stick to talking points on uniting Americans and solving the current energy and economic crises” (Ecarma). Additionally, he has slowly stopped mentioning Trump on his social channels and removed photos of the two republican politicians posed together from his website and Twitter banner (Ecarma). Pennsylvania’s status as a battleground state makes accessing the anti-trump GOP base critically important to Oz’s campaign. But this strategy may not bode well. Trump spokesman Taylor Budowich reports that “Americans are hungry for the policies and leadership” of the Trump presidency, “and it’s those same policies and leadership that will fuel big Republican wins in 2022 and beyond” (Arnsdorf et al.). What has remained consistent is Oz’s apprehensive response to discussing the outcome of the 2020 election. Oz did appear to suggest that the election was stolen back in an April debate but has since remained indifferent to the issue (Ecarma). He’s addressed more broadly, on his Twitter, voter access and election integrity in Pennsylvania, suggesting solutions like poll observers, voter IDs, and signature verification processes (@DrOz). Oz has focused on hyperlocal public appearance, recently attending the Penn State tailgate at beaver stadium (@DrOz). And over the past month, he’s also gone to community forums on crime, visited small towns struggling economically, and has eaten at many restaurants always posing with constituents. Oz is working to soften his celebrity image with these voter blocs. Radio has always been a tool for GOTV efforts, especially for targeting voters who are hard to reach by phone banking (Semiatin 84). Oz has tried to make use of this traditional tactic, recently appearing on WEEO News Talk (@DrOz). However, a radio interview from 2014 resurfaced this month where Oz says incest is not a big problem” and explained why girls don’t want to have sex with their fathers (Massie). His GOTV are lack luster and struggling to hold up to Fetterman’s, and cancel culture is dragging him down.
ReplyDeleteOz’s stump speech usually starts out talking about how he is the child of legal (emphasis on legal) immigrants. There’s a major thread of the American Dream and patriotism. He jumps from the Green New Deal to RTC and gender studies in elementary schools, government overreach during Covid-19 and more (Pennsylvania U.S. Senate candidate Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano remarks in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania). However, Oz’s most prominent talking point in speeches and on social media is crime.
Get-out-the-vote efforts are highly important in the 2022 midterm elections. As campaigns move into the digital age, they have begun to approach voters as if they are consumers of a product (the candidate.) “The focus is on the relationship with the customer (voter) at his or her own convenience” (Semiatin, 2021, pp. 86.) In addition, stump campaigning is increasingly hyper-local, as parties and campaigns target specific precincts within congressional districts based on factors like partisanship and voter turnout (pp. 81.) When it comes to the Val Demings senate campaign in Florida, the former Orlando police chief’s team has worked to target key bases identified by Semiatin (2021), such as “swing” precincts, her democratic base, minority voters in “red” districts and gen-z voters (pp. 82.)
ReplyDeleteFor example, Demings visited the University of Miami in September to speak with college students about her plans for office and stance on abortion rights (Terr, 2022.) FiveThirtyEight identifies Miami as spanning across two congressional districts: the 24th and 26th. Though the 24th district is “solid blue,” FL-26 is a “competitive Republican” area (FiveThirtyEight, 2022.) This means that Miami is a mixture of blue and “swing” voters, and that the Demings campaign is smart to want to target the democratic base and undecided voters of Miami’s two districts. Part of this strategy is appealing to young voters, such as the UMiami students she talked to in September, who most likely have more progressive views on issues like abortion and may be inspired by her prescense on campus to register to vote and turn out for her on election day.
Besides coming to their college campuses, the Demings campaign also uses social media to get out the gen-z vote. “Social media can produce peer pressure regarding how to vote and making sure you get there” (Semiatin, 2021, pp. 87.) For example, if UMiami students start sharing to Instagram that Demings came to campus, maybe students will be more likely to look her up and give her their vote. Lastly, in my own opinion as a student journalist myself, it’s important that the article I cited about Deming’s visit to UMiami was from a student publication, because student newspapers and news websites deliver university-centered news that students are probably more likely to interact with than other news sources. In my own experience, these articles get shared on social media by the news organization and student journalists, which increases its viewership and sends the message that Demings cares about college students.
Another key base that the Deming’s campaign must appeal to is Black women. Daniels and Dowe (2021) write that “a broad network of community cultivation and support (for Black female voters), including local and civic organizations and such institutions as Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) and Black churches” may help Demings get out the vote this November (para. 3.) For example, Demings is a member of Delta Sigma Theta, a historically Black sorority, and Links, a nonprofit organization focused on elevating Black women (para. 6.) This shows the importance that interest groups, nonprofits and activist organizations play in getting out the Black female vote. “Being affiliated with these groups gives Demings a chance to hear directly from Black women about their political concerns — and to reach out to them to communicate her vision. Black women make up only 7 percent of the U.S. population, but they tend to vote at higher rates than other groups. They are the Democratic Party’s most loyal and consistent voters. The national and international network of Deltas and Links members gives Demings more fundraising opportunities among people who have already heard about her civic activism and public service” (Daniels and Dowe, 2021, para. 6.)
DeleteThe Demings campaign has been placing their bets on the endorsement of community organizations, not presidential rallies. In fact, Demings has not really campaigned with President Joe Biden. Perry (2022) writes that Deming’s focus is on statewide polls, not “outside surrogates” (para. 8.) During a recent trip to Fort Lauderdale, (a district that tends to lean blue, according to FiveThirtyEight) President Biden Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist, but not Demings. In addition, Biden has not been in Florida for over a year (Perry, 2022, para. 1-8.) This shows that the Deming’s team is not keen on presenting Biden as the face of her senate campaign.
While Biden has been campaigning for midterm democratic candidates in swing states like Pennsylvania, “some Democratic candidates in battleground states have not been enthusiastic about campaigning with the president” (Lati, 2022, para. 27.) Many democratic candidates in swing states like Florida have higher approval ratings than the president himself, and would like to separate themselves from the president’s unpopularity. In addition, the president’s party tends to lose the midterms, so it could be damaging to be seen campaigning with him (para. 16-20.) “(Biden’s) being attacked more often in televised ads than Obama was at this point in 2010, or Trump was in 2018. He goes largely unnamed on Democratic campaign websites and Twitter accounts. And candidates in key races in battleground states are either not asking him to come — or actively avoiding him when he does according to a Washington Post survey of more than 60 candidates in the most competitive gubernatorial, U.S. Senate and congressional campaigns in the country” (Viser, 2022, para. 3.) Therefore, Deming’s stump campaign and GOTV strategies have been to mobilize her base, target swing voters and districts, appeal to Black women and young people and to distance herself from President Biden.
Stump campaigning has always been an important part of political campaigns. It is essential for candidates to go visit their publics and show their character so that their constituents get out the vote (called GOTV). However, I do believe that stump campaigning strategies and effectiveness are rapidly changing. With the advent of new technologies and an increasing trend of globalization, campaigns need to adapt to fit modern publics. Author Richard Semiatin explains this new trend campaigns face saying, "They know what voters eat, where they shop, and what they watch on television. Given all the personal information out in public and cyberspace, presidential, senatorial, congressional, and gubernatorial elections will become more individualized," (Sematin). Campaigns need to deliberately focus on specific voters and must make specific efforts to appeal to specific voters on an individual level.
ReplyDeleteJohn Fetterman's efforts reflect these changes in campaign strategy. Fetterman's stump campaigning tactics aim to cover the entirety of Pennsylvania, under his slogan "Every County, Every Vote". His efforts are due to the recognition of the importance of this Pennsylvania election. For instance, in his article "Pennsylvania primary voters turned out in record numbers. Here's what drew some to the polls.", Sam Dunklau interviewed Pennsylvania residents about the coming election. One resident, Katrina Peters, said, "'I vote in every election regardless. It’s so important. But this time, it feels like it’s higher stakes,'" (Dunklau). Fetterman has recognized this voter mindset and has adapted his strategy to visit as many voters as possible. His visits normally consist of medium-sized rallies, occasionally speaking to special interest groups.
As stated, Fetterman's strategy is to visit as many counties and as many voters as possible. Many counties even joke that the last Democratic candidate to visit was John F. Kennedy (Routh). Campaigning to the entirety of the state does support his individual-focused efforts. Fetterman's speeches can be described as unconventional. One description of a visit to Indiana County clocks his speech as short (seven minutes), casual, and focused on criticizing his opponent Mehmet Oz (Routh). Most of Fetterman's speeches seem focused on criticizing Oz, but recently he has started discussing his health issues, trying to spin that development in a positive light. Fetterman has not discussed voting access and integrity.
Fetterman has Biden's endorsement for the position and has publicized this. However, Fetterman is now using his relationship with Biden to further amplify his issues. For instance, Fetterman used Biden's visit to Pittsburgh to put pressure on marijuana legalization (Terruso). By having Biden's endorsement and putting pressure on Biden on key issues, Fetterman is appealing to both Biden's fans and critics.
Work Cited
Dunklau, Sam. “Pennsylvania Primary Voters Turned out in Record Numbers. Here's What Drew Some to the Polls.” 90.5 WESA, WESA, 30 June 2022, https://www.wesa.fm/politics-government/2022-06-30/pennsylvania-primary-voters-turned-out-in-record-numbers-heres-what-drew-some-to-the-polls.
Routh, Julian. “John Fetterman Reaffirms Commitment to Rural Pa. Communities during Rally at IUP.” Gazette, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 29 Sept. 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-state/2022/09/20/john-fetterman-senate-campaign-rally-indiana-university-of-pennsylvania-democrat-vs-oz-stroke-health-rural/stories/202209200116.
Semiatin, Richard J. "Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future." Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, 4th ed., edited by Richard J. Semiatin, CQ Press, 2020, pp. 80-99.
Terruso, Julia. “Fetterman Uses Pittsburgh Labor Day Visit to Push Pot Policy to President Biden.” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 4 Sept. 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-state/2022/09/04/fetterman-decriminalize-marijuana-pittsburgh-labor-day-parade-pot-policy-president-biden/stories/202209010025.
Apologies: This blog post was written by Mason Glod
DeleteBella Baird
ReplyDeleteThe GOTV strategy has been used by Demings’s mostly through social media and college campuses. Demings’s seems to be slight lacking in focusing purely on the GOTV strategy. The strategy shows,"the key to any get-out-the-vote (GOTV) program relies on getting your base out to the polls and voters who match the profile of support for your candidate but who may not be thought of as traditional base voters”(Semitian). I find the Demings’s focuses on the same crowds and does no advertise her events as big as they should be. Her main focus has been the main demographics that she can connect with: those who do not like Rubio, African Americans, Democrats, women, and law enforcement.
Demings was in the running for vice president back in 2020, but it is now clear that Biden is not someone she is looking to be by her side. Biden took a visit to Florida and Demings was nowhere to be seen, “Demings is likely trying to avoid a photo-op with the president, who is not particularly popular in Florida, said Aubrey Jewett, a University of Central Florida political scientist” (Swisher). Although Biden came to Florida to speak it seems Val took the day to head to Washington weirdly enough. Mr. President does not have a huge fanbase in Florida and has been quite desperate to share with the states that, “they have pushed American democracy to the brink. And in Pittsburgh, he told union workers that anyone who refuses to accept the outcome of a democratic election is not a patriot” (Lati). It seems Demings’s does not want a negative view on her campaign having anything to do with the president.
Val Demings’s main upcoming campaigning events are being hosted at large Florida state schools such as University of Florida and Florida International University. Which will most likely be the largest events she will host targeting both students and alumni. Other events seem to be smaller visits throughout Florida such as St. Petes to Tampa. I have found that Demings’s has done a lesser job getting the vote out and showing off her events. The only place I can find photos are in her Instagram video clips showing a montage of different things. Her website allows you to sign up for different events, but there is no way to tell the address until you sign up. Demings’s big topics in her speeches are typically about how she is better than Rubio. She focuses on the key topics that today’s younger audience extremely cares about, abortion, gay pride, gun violence. Demings fought back against Rubio when he clearly stated his thoughts on abortion on CBS Miami, “Demings’ campaign announced the launch of “Demings for Women,” with a kickoff event held at the Firefighters Memorial Building in Doral on Friday night” (Riski). Demings fought back extremely fast with this campaign event to fight back against Rubio. An honest and strong move against her opponent.
Works Cited
DeleteIati, Marisa. “Biden Turns Urgently to Critical Task of Holding the Senate.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 12 Sept. 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/12/biden-pennsylvania-senate-race/?utm_campaign=wp_todays_headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_headlines&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37e640b%2F631f0349f3d9003c58d1bb34%2F5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c%2F42%2F57%2F631f0349f3d9003c58d1bb34&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83.
Semiatin, Richard J. “‘Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future.’” Campaigns On The Cutting Edge, CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA, 2021.
Swisher, Skyler. “Val Demings to Skip President Biden's Orlando Rally; Crist 'Proud' to Welcome Him.” Orlando Sentinel, 22 Sept. 2022, https://www.orlandosentinel.com/politics/2022-election/os-ne-politics-2022-election-demings-skips-rally-20220922-s2wukegxgjgoblfczrwskpqm3q-story.html.
Riski, Tess. “Demings Rallies Women in Doral as She Amps up Campaign.” Tampa Bay Times, Tampa Bay Times, 27 Aug. 2022, https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2022/08/27/demings-rallies-women-in-doral-as-she-amps-up-campaign/.
Charlie Windels Part 1
ReplyDeleteStump campaigning has changed drastically throughout history and the past few years are no exception. Amidst the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2020 election, there have been massive changes in campaign strategy as covid has forced candidates to take a hybrid approach with in-person and digital messages. Chapter 6 of the Semiatin textbook talked about some of the ways candidates reach their voters in convenient and accessible ways. The reading quotes “The focus is on the relationship with the customer and how to reach that customer at his or her convenience. The techniques to reach that customer come from microtargeting. Political microtargeting “refers to the use of different communications (mail, phone, canvassing, direct mail, and social media advertising, etc.” (Semiatin). Overall I think it is interesting to see how candidates are adapting or not adapting to change, and how they are dealing with and addressing certain issues. Stump campaigns are critically important for shaping a candidate's character as well as image.
For my election-eve project, I am looking at Marco Rubio. After looking at some of his campaign strategies it is apparent to me what he is focusing on. One thing I noticed, in particular, was how he tries not to associate himself with Trump or Biden and acts in a very independent manner. While this can be seen as both good and bad Rubio seems to stick to this approach throughout the entirety of his campaigns. An article I was reading titled Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-Edged Sword talks about some of the ways midterm candidates are choosing to interact with the current president as well as former president Trump. The article mentions how “Republicans privately say the reality is more complicated than most candidates are eager to admit. In the primary, Trump’s endorsement and the boost from a rally with him were the envy of all. In the general, though, Trump’s impact is decidedly more mixed. Especially in places where Republicans are hoping to make inroads into Democratic territory, Trump’s intervention is less welcome” (Arnsdorf, Scherer, Dawsey). Overall after reading this and looking at some of Rubio's campaign strategies I think his approach to not taking after former president Trump could be risky, but could also pay off when thinking about the democratic vote.
Charlie Windels Part 2
ReplyDeleteIn addition to this, the media has played an even larger role than ever before. Candidates have to watch their every move and make sure they are making the right decisions in such unprecedented times. For Rubio One of the many places he recently campaigned in was Brevard County. After looking into this I found an article titled Sen. Marco Rubio appeals for Brevard voter support on issues of culture wars, and the economy which talked about some of the issues and topics Rubio focused on in this particular rally while avoiding mention of former president Trump. The article mentions how “Rubio touched on schools and the curriculum, border security and immigration, as well as the economy and inflation. He railed against what he believes to be the leftist agenda of President Joe Biden and the Democrats, while attacking Demings for her time in the House of Representatives and as Orlando police chief” (Chapoco). Ultimately I think this approach from Rubio is interesting as it avoids any super-controversial topics such as abortion and voter integrity. Despite this, I think he can receive a lot of criticism as well as support so it will be interesting to see what adjustments he makes, if any, based on polls and other feedback.
Lastly, after reading and looking at some of Rubio’s social media posts on Instagram, Youtube, and Twitter I found that Rubio interacts with his supporters in a variety of different ways from small meetings with Florida’s ranchers and cattlemen to large rallies in more densely populated areas. One article I read titled Positive Marco Rubio ad spotlights the PPP success story and mentioned how Rubios recent ad and how successful the program was in helping frontline workers keep their jobs during and after the pandemic. The article quotes “The 30-second ad, entitled “Diego’s” illustrates how that forgivable loan scheme to businesses helped defray payroll expenses during pandemic-driven shutdowns in 2020, using restaurant staff’s first-person testimony to frame the utility of the program” (Gancarski). I think this is important to consider when looking at Rubio’s campaign strategies because by releasing this ad he is reaching a wide variety of people online that he may have not reached at his in-person rallies. I think this was an effective way for Rubio to show genuineness as well as grow his brand/character. Overall I think Rubio has many strengths in his campaign strategy, however, some of those strengths can also be interpreted as weaknesses depending on the voters' values.
Works Cited
Chapoco, Ralph. “Sen. Marco Rubio Appeals for Brevard Voter Support on Issues of Culture Wars, Economy.” Florida Today, Florida Today, 23 Sept. 2022, https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2022/09/23/rubio-demings-senate-race-desantis-fine-immigration-elections-trump-florida-brevard-congress/8085752001/.
Gancarski, A.G. “Positive Marco Rubio Ad Spotlights PPP Success Story.” Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government., 9 Sept. 2022, https://floridapolitics.com/archives/554880-positive-marco-rubio-ad-spotlights-ppp-success-story/.
Arnsdorf, Isaac, et al. "Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-edged
Sword." The Washington Post, 3 Sept. 2022, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/03/ trump-midtermspennsylvania/?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_evening&carta-url=https://s2.washingtonpost.com/car-ln-tr/37d3d04/6313c069ab732227d00943dc/5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c/15/47/6313c069ab732227d00943dc&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83. Accessed 28 Sept. 2022.
Semiatin, Richard J. "Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future." Campaigns on the Cutting
Edge, edited by Semiatin, 4th ed., CQ Press, 2013, pp. 80-99.
Senator Dem. Raphael Warnock has been campaigning all across rural Georgia in hopes of winning over those parts of the state. Recently he has had events in towns such as Albany, Dublin, and Newnan. None of these towns were large rallies but they show where Warnock is focusing and all have things in common, they are in rural areas of Georgia and could help lead him to victory in the upcoming midterm elections if he continues to target areas such as these. The biggest of the areas that Warnock has held events at was Augusta, where he recently held a rally at Augusta Tech. Augusta helped Warnock win the special election in 2021, and while he should be holding events in every large city in Georgia, he should continue to mostly focus on rural Georgia, as that is where the election will most likely be won. Warnock has been focusing on voting access, his bipartisan infrastructure bill, abortion, and healthcare in his stump speeches as of late. Peter Sullivan in his article for The Hill, “Warnock pushes to close Medicaid coverage gap amid tough reelection battle” said “Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) is making a last-ditch effort to add a provision providing health coverage in GOP-led states declining Medicaid expansion to Democrats’ sweeping package headed for a vote in the coming days.” This has helped Warnock mightily with Democrats in the state of Georgia, especially with Herschel Walker’s recent comments in his non-support of Medicaid. Voting rights/access has always been a big issue for Senator Warnock as well. As he himself said on television on MSNBC and from Yahoo.com, “It’s the reason why I know that I still have work to do in the United States Senate to protect this core, core value. I was John Lewis’ pastor and in his memory I continue to fight the good fight.” This issue, along with the others I mentioned prior, have been issues that Warnock has reiterated in several rallies and speeches throughout Georgia. Warnock has also been pleading with the people of Georgia to get out to vote. He has been using social media such as Facebook and Twitter, but he did something recently that should help him out mightily with younger voters in Georgia. He joined TikTok earlier this week, and this should help him with millennial and gen z voters. This quote from Richard Semiatan in Chapter 6 of Campaigns On The Cutting Edge reiterates how important digital media is in communicating with millennial and gen z voters, “Millennials are the largest living generation in the United States. Their primary means of communication is digital and in particular, texting.” Now while texting directly to potential voters could be a good thing for Warnock as well, I believe that him joining TikTok and using other forms of social media is a great way to communicate with the younger generation, who will be very important to the candidates in the upcoming midterms.
ReplyDeleteSomething that has been noticeable about Warnock’s campaign is how bipartisan he has come across in many instances. Rarely referring to the President in rallies or speeches, he seems to know that acting as a bipartisan democrat in a mostly republican state, could win over some republican voters who would not be satisfied with Herschel Walker representing them in the senate. This has been similar to many other democratic candidates in battleground states for the upcoming midterm elections. Marisa Iati for the Washington Post wrote that “Whatever his (Biden’s) rhetoric, some Democratic candidates in battleground states have not been enthusiastic about campaigning with the president.” The president has not been popular with many in the last few months, which can in part be due to the rising inflation in the country. Also, with this, many in the state of Georgia may seem him as too liberal and that if Warnock campaigns with his support, it could hurt his chances with some Republican voters who would vote for him otherwise. Whatever the case, Warnock has not been talking much about the president and in my own opinion, that is the smart move if he wants to keep his seat in the senate.
Sullivan, Peter. “Warnock Pushes to Close Medicaid Coverage Gap amid Tough Reelection Battle.” The Hill, The Hill, 6 Aug. 2022, https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/3590443-warnock-pushes-for-medicaid-expansion-amid-tough-reelection-battle/.
Delete“Warnock: Voting Rights Battle Is Why I Know 'I Still Have Work to Do' in Senate.” Yahoo!, Yahoo!, 29 Sept. 2022, https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/warnock-voting-rights-battle-why-010826022.html.
Iati, Marisa. “Biden Turns Urgently to Critical Task of Holding the Senate.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 12 Sept. 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/12/biden-pennsylvania-senate-race/?utm_campaign=wp_todays_headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_headlines&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37e640b%2F631f0349f3d9003c58d1bb34%2F5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c%2F42%2F57%2F631f0349f3d9003c58d1bb34&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83.
Semiatin, Richard J. “Chapter 6 Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future.” Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, 4th ed., CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA, 2021, pp. 85–86.
William Dean
ReplyDeleteGet Out The Vote efforts (herein “GOTV”) are any method that candidates and political parties use to attempt to get their supporters to the polls on election day. Traditionally, GOTV efforts relied on a party-driven method wherein candidates “owed their allegiance to parties and… parties would then provide the organizational muscle…” (Semiatin). This included voter registration lists, mailing lists and radio ads among other things. However, candidate-driven politics emerged after the Kennedy campaign, whereafter the candidate became a celebrity-like figure, more important than the party they identified with. The model today is a hybrid system, “where parties…provide a basic organization of delivery systems for each campaign” while the candidates remain their own ambassadors to the public (ibid.).
In recent news, Hurricane Ian has put a pause on campaign events in Florida. Rubio’s latest major campaign event was held in Brevard County on the weekend of September 17th-18th, where he “largely avoid[ed] the issue of former President Donald Trump,” instead drawing “attention to the stark fault lines between himself and his Democratic opponent” (Chapoco). Brevard County is a major population center in Florida, sitting on the coast just east of Orlando and home to more than one half million people. Information from the Supervisor of Elections shows that voter turnout in the County is much higher than usual at 80.31% and is a solid Republican area, with Trump outperforming Biden by roughly 16.5% in 2020 (Bobanic, 2020 General Election). Furthermore, Rubio won this county by 22% in his 2016 Senate campaign against Democrat Patrick Murphy (Bobanic, 2016 General Election).
In place of campaign events, Rubio has appeared on CNN, ABC and Fox News over the past few days. During these appearances, Rubio has touted much-needed funding to rebuild Florida after Hurricane Ian. It seems that Rubio uses TV appearances instead of social media posts. Though he has not mentioned his candidacy in these segments, his mere presence on three major channels is a major benefit. His voting base is older on average, and older Americans tend to watch TV rather than engage on social media.
One major endorsement Rubio received is from the Florida Police Benevolent Association, who opted for the “true champion for law and order” candidate over former Orlando police chief Val Demings (Leonard). And despite the fraught relationship between the two, Rubio received the endorsement of Donald Trump in April. Though the two vary wildly in attitude and policy ambitions, the endorsement is likely to help Rubio, given the President’s previously-mentioned election successes in the state.
Bobanic, Tim. 2016 General Election. 8 Nov. 2016, https://enr.electionsfl.org/BRE/1616/Summary/.
---. 2020 General Election. 13 Nov. 2020, https://enr.electionsfl.org/BRE/2771/Summary/.
Chapoco, Ralph. “Sen. Marco Rubio Appeals for Brevard Voter Support on Issues of Culture Wars, Economy.” Florida Today, https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2022/09/23/rubio-demings-senate-race-desantis-fine-immigration-elections-trump-florida-brevard-congress/8085752001/. Accessed 3 Oct. 2022.
Leonard, Kimberly. “‘Law and Order’ Is a Key Campaign Issue in Florida US Senate Race as Police-Backed Marco Rubio Faces Former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings.” Business Insider, https://www.businessinsider.com/rubio-gets-police-endorsements-in-race-against-former-police-chief-2022-5. Accessed 3 Oct. 2022.
Semiatin, Richard J. “Chapter 6 Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future.” Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA, 2021.
Val Demings' use of GOTV is portrayed chiefly on social media, although she has given speeches on local news stations at the beginning of her campaign. She uses GOTV tactics on social media by trying to “change Florida for the better” by comparing herself to her competitor, Marco Rubio. She talks him down and talks herself up to try and make Floridians realize he is causing problems for Florida that she could fix. According to Richard J. Semiantin in Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, “...campaign staff use smartphones and tablets to research individual voter information.” (Semiantin, 81). She knows exactly what they want to see on her social media. Her voter engagement is present by having her followers comment supportive sayings on her posts but to make sure she is truly getting their vote, she goes with several mobilization strategies on social media. She talks a lot about prevalent issues that many new voters care about such as abortion rights, gun violence, and LGBTQ+ rights. She addresses all of these issues to ensure her voters are happy and heard in Florida since Marco Rubio’s views are very different. Her tactic of changing Florida is the main thing she uses for her campaign.
ReplyDeleteWhere her campaigns have been being held seems to me that it falls into the category of targeting specific voting blocs to ensure their votes. For example, she visited UMiami in order to get the votes of Generation Z. Demings said to The Miami Hurricane, “Soon my generation will not be leading for much longer, we need young, smart, energetic people to lead the way.” (Terr, The Miami Hurricane). By contacting this voting bloc directly, it contributes to her GOTV initiative.
Her top talking points in her stump speeches include women's rights, abortion rights, gun control, crime, and more. In an article from CBS that talked about her traveling campaign, the author wrote, “She took to the stage saying she'll fight for women's rights and equal opportunities.” (Dyer, CBS). I have not found any information about Demings talking directly to her audience about voting rights, however, she does seem to care about it since she led a letter signed by other Democratic members of Florida’s Congressional Delegation in January. The letter entailed “a complete and thorough investigation by the Department of Justice to identify and stop any other patterns of voter suppression.” (Demings, Press Release). She also “cited the need to keep politics out of criminal investigations of voting integrity.” (Demings, Press Release).
Demings has been previously involved with Joe Biden as she was a potential running mate for him in the 2020 election but for the midterm elections, she has disconnected with him. An article from The Washington Post writes, “Some Democratic candidates in battleground states have not been enthusiastic about campaigning with the president.” (Iati, The Washington Post). Demings happens to be one of those candidates as Florida is a battleground state. Biden came to Florida last week to campaign with Charlie Crist in Demings’ hometown, Orlando, and Demings was not there to meet him. It is said by an article from NBC News that “Crist needs Biden to at least get free media exposure,” (Caputo and Korecki, NBC News) and this could be why Demings did not meet with him because she has the media coverage she already needs. She seems to be doing something right with her campaign as she is consistently receiving online engagement and support in person.
References
DeleteCaputo, Marc, and Natasha Korecki. "Democratic Divide In Florida: Desantis Challenger To Rally With Biden, But Senate Candidate Won't". NBC News, 2022, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/democratic-divide-florida-desantis-challenger-rally-biden-senate-candi-rcna48829.
Demings, Val. "REP. DEMINGS LEADS CALL FOR DOJ REVIEW TO SECURE FLORIDA VOTING RIGHTS". Demings House, 2022, https://demings.house.gov/media/press-releases/rep-demings-leads-call-doj-review-secure-florida-voting-rights.
Dyer, Ashley. "Val Demmings, Charlie Crist Make Campaign Stops In Miami-Dade". Cbsnews.Com, 2022, https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/val-demmings-charlie-crist-make-campaign-stops-in-miami/.
Iati, Marisa. "Biden Turns Urgently To Critical Task Of Holding The Senate". The Washington Post, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/12/biden-pennsylvania-senate-race/?utm_campaign=wp_todays_headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_headlines&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37e640b%2F631f0349f3d9003c58d1bb34%2F5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c%2F42%2F57%2F631f0349f3d9003c58d1bb34&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83.
Semiatin, Richard J. "Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future." Campaigns on the
Cutting Edge, edited by Semiatin, 4th ed., CQ Press, 2013, pp. 81.
Terr, Alex. "Florida Congresswoman Val Demings Visits UM On U.S. Senate Campaign Trail". The Miami Hurricane, 2022, https://www.themiamihurricane.com/2022/09/07/florida-congresswoman-val-demings-visits-um-on-u-s-senate-campaign-trail/.
As noted by Richard Semiatin, “the key to any get-out-the-vote (GOTV) program relies on getting your base out to the polls and voters who match the profile of support for your candidate” (Semiatin, 80) though are not traditional voters. When looking at John Fetterman’s Senate campaign, we can see his efforts are targeting many of the newly registered female voters in Pennsylvania. According to the York Dispatch, since the overturning of Roe V. Wade, 56% of new registrations are women. Fetterman has been targeting these voters by focusing on abortion, the issue that theoretically spurred their registration in the first place. If Fetterman can turn these voters out, they will make up a key part in their winning coalition. Therefore Fetterman has made abortion one of the main talking points of his campaign. Other top talking points are his support for unions and semi-protectionist trade rhetoric which also serves to target working-class voters that Fetterman counts as key to his winning coalition.
ReplyDeleteFetterman, since his primary election has been campaigning across the state. In fact, he made visiting every county in PA a cornerstone of his campaign messaging and strategy. While during the primary he stuck to doing mostly small meetings, in the general election Fetterman transitioned to doing large rallies with his supporters. Just last week, Fetterman did his first event in Philadelphia which was a large rally. This choice shows his campaigns need to turn out Black voters, as Philadelphia is where many of the state’s Black residents reside. It being his first event there shows that he is not just focusing on cities as Democrats sometimes do but spending real time in the industrial and rural center of the state. Though, I would agree that late September is far too late for Fetterman to be making his first appearance in Philly. Especially since Black voters often feel forgotten by politicians, of course, Republicans but even more stinging by the Democrats their votes put into office
Regarding election integrity, Fetterman has tried to tie Oz to former President Trump’s claims the election was stolen. He has demanded Oz reveal how he would vote if Trump challenged the results in 2024 as he did in 2020. This strategy follows what other Democrats are doing around the country in their own respective races. Fetterman has not made this a cornerstone of his campaign, instead focusing on bread-and-butter economic issues and abortion.
Fetterman has involved President Biden in his campaign. Around Labor Day Biden did 3 rallies with Fetterman and then on Labor Day, did an event with Fetterman in support of the United Steelworkers Union. Though Biden is a relatively unpopular president, these events are guaranteed press for the Fetterman campaign. In addition, doing an event with the sitting president with a union shows not just a steadfast commitment on Fetterman’s part to unions, but also the degree to which he needs to get them to turn out on November 8th.
Get Out The Vote programs have shown to generate more turnout, however, stump campaigning is the best GOTV tactic for candidates to ensure voters are excited about getting out to the polls. Stump campaigning is when political candidates travel around the country making many appearances relaying the same message. Stump campaign allows parties from various backgrounds and areas to support the same values and issues they deem important. Creating this unity within a party is the best way to GOTV. In Campaigns on The Cutting Edge, Richard Semiatin said, “The sense of connection is most critical for GOTV. While studies can show why early GOVT may not be as effective as later in the campaign, the fact is that political parties will need to establish a bond with voters before asking for their vote. The GOVT effort in the future should subsume not that voting messages or alarms will consistently generate turnout, but rather that turnout is part of a longer process tied to the policies and commitments of a political party and its candidates” (Semiatin 94).
ReplyDeleteVal Demings has shown great efforts to maintain her voter engagement and stay mobile throughout her campaign, even missing an opportunity to campaign alongside the president in her hometown. The article “Val Demings Skips Biden Rally to Focus on Defeating Florida Republicans” in Newsweek said “President Joe Biden is headed to Demings' hometown on Tuesday to stump for Charlie Crist, the Democrat looking to unseat DeSantis, in a battleground state that has become increasingly Republican. But Demings, who currently serves in the House, won't be in Florida to meet with the president in the final weeks leading up to Election Day. Instead, the congresswoman will remain in Washington, D.C., per her campaign. Demings isn't avoiding Biden or his support, it's just that campaigning alongside the president isn't a priority” (Fung). Demings has not only been campaigning in Washington, D.C., but also all throughout Florida including Miami, Doral, Tamarac, and numerous other towns. Val Deming's campaigns are usually smaller rallies of about 100 or so people. According to the article “Val Demings Stumps in South Florida” in The Miami Times, Val Deming's most recent stump campaign's top topics were affordable housing and gun violence, specifically pressing her opponent’s inaction to address them.
Val Demings has been able to fall back on Joe Biden as a key endorser as she was one of his potential running mates for the 2020 presidential election. However, going back to the previous article from Newsweek the two politicians have been growing distant. In the article “Biden Turns Urgently to Critical Task of Holding the Senate” in the Washington Post, it said “During Biden’s trips to Pittsburgh and Milwaukee on Labor Day, some Democratic hopefuls appeared by his side, while others were absent. In Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat vying for a U.S. Senate seat, joined Biden at a union hall, although gubernatorial hopeful Josh Shapiro was elsewhere” (Iati), showing many democrats are losing a sense of respect and regard when it comes to President Biden. While there seems to be no problem between Val Demings and the Current president, Demings could be jumping on the bandwagon of keeping her distance from Biden for the sake of her campaign.
“Val Demings Stumps in South Florida.” The Miami Times, 3 Aug. 2022, https://www.miamitimesonline.com/news/local/val-demings-stumps-in-south-florida/article_25e3d1e8-130d-11ed-b823-17f401bce81d.html.
DeleteFung, Katherine. “Val Demings Skips Biden Rally to Focus on Defeating Florida Republicans.” Newsweek, Newsweek, 22 Sept. 2022, https://www.newsweek.com/val-demings-skips-joe-biden-charlie-crist-rally-focus-ron-desantis-1745496.
Iati, Marisa. “Biden Turns Urgently to Critical Task of Holding the Senate.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 12 Sept. 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/12/biden-pennsylvania-senate-race/?utm_campaign=wp_todays_headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_headlines&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37e640b%2F631f0349f3d9003c58d1bb34%2F5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c%2F42%2F57%2F631f0349f3d9003c58d1bb34&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83.
Semiatin, Richard J. "Voter Mobilization: An Unexpected Future." Campaigns on the
Cutting Edge, edited by Semiatin, 4th ed., CQ Press, 2013, pp. 81.
Terr, Alex. "Florida Congresswoman Val Demings Visits UM On U.S. Senate Campaign Trail". The Miami Hurricane, 2022, https://www.themiamihurricane.com/2022/09/07/florida-congresswoman-val-demings-visits-um-on-u-s-senate-campaign-trail/.
When looking at the campaign of Herschel Walker, one can tell that his get out the vote tactic is, like many other Republican candidates during this cycle, based on the idea that he can be a “mini-Trump” with the way he speaks and handles issues. That is simply what it all boils down to. Can you, as a candidate, be Trump-like enough to gain the approval of his following?
ReplyDeleteWhile researching for this blog post, I read the article “Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-Edged Sword” from the Washington Post. One segment that really stood out to me was discussing Trump as a campaign asset, “‘There is a world in where he’s helpful,’ one prominent Republican said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to assess the situation more freely. ‘Republicans don’t win if we don’t turn out the Trump voter. That’s just the truth. What we have to do is turn out the Trump voter while not having him turn off everyone else’” (Arnsdorf et al.). The fact that Walker has been endorsed by Former President Trump is a benefit to him, as that name being associated with Walker might be enough to get people to vote for him, alongside the fact he is the Republican nominee.
Looking at Walker’s campaign events through the eyes of the traditional media as well as his social media, I can easily see a pattern with what he wants to accomplish. He has a tendency to meet with smaller groups of highly concentrated voting blocs, such as Asian-Americans, veterans, and women, among others (just a few from his recent social media posts). While this can prove to be positive for Walker, sometimes I wonder if he’s doing it correctly. In mid-September, Walker hosted an event with women voters in Augusta. That sentence on its own is great. He is campaigning to a crucial demographic in an area his Republican candidate lost by over 39 points in the 2021 runoff. However, I think he went about it wrong. Walker marketed the rally in question as “Women for Herschel,” a move that can prove to make the whole thing worthless. I already established this is a crucial group in an area he needs to win, but calling it “Women for Herschel” leads me to believe that the only people in attendance will be those who are already planning to vote for him in November.
However, at the event in Augusta, he laid out his entire stump campaign. Honestly, after reading it, I can’t see how it would be any different. An article on the event said, “They spoke on issues like Critical Race Theory as well as safety in schools. ‘They ask me why I'm running: this economy, crime, separation, in your schools…they are trying to teach young kids about how to identify.’ A topic he believes, shouldn’t be addressed in the classroom” (Edwards). He hit nearly all the modern Republican talking points, which above all else, will make or break his campaign.
To begin the conclusion of my post, I would like to talk about yard signs. In “Chapter 6 Voter Registration: An Unexpected Future” of the book “Campaigns on the Cutting Edge” by Richard Semiatin, he talked about how the comeback of the candidate yard signs has made a difference in recent political campaigns. If we’re taking that into consideration, I don’t think voter access and integrity is going to matter for Walker. In the recent New York Times article “The Racial Divide Herschel Walker Couldn’t Outrun” by John Branch (one of the best articles I’ve ever read), he leads off the piece by describing the amount of Herschel Walker yard signs there are in his hometown of Wrightsville, Georgia. To sum it up, almost only white people and Walker’s family have yard signs of him. If Walker can’t even mobilize the black vote in his own hometown, then how can he expect to win the election?
ReplyDeleteWorks Cited
Arnsdorf, Isaac, et al. “Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-Edged Sword.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 3 Sept. 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/03/trump-midterms-pennsylvania/?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_evening&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37d3d04%2F6313c069ab732227d00943dc%2F5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c%2F15%2F47%2F6313c069ab732227d00943dc&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83.
Branch, John. “The Racial Divide Herschel Walker Couldn't Outrun.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 2 Oct. 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/02/us/politics/herschel-walker-georgia-senate-race.html.
Edwards, Ansleigh. “U.S. Senate Candidate Herschel Walker Speaks At.” WFXG, 14 Sept. 2022, https://www.wfxg.com/story/47287235/us-senate-candidate-herschel-walker-speaks-at-women-for-herschel-rally-in-augusta.
Semiatin, Richard J., and Richard J. Semiatin. “Chapter 6 Voter Registration: An Unexpected Future.” Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA, 2021, pp. 80–100.
Cj Benedetti
ReplyDeleteStump campaigning has been vital to the success of a campaign since campaigning began. They started as a necessity to get the message out to as many voters as possible when the news was still slow traveling and has stayed a constant and ever-changing part of a campaign. The only time you could argue that it was dead is during the 2020 election cycle when COVID essentially shut down the world. Even then though candidates still tried the virtual way to stump campaigning. I personally know that Joe Biden tried and sometimes succeeded in hosting virtual town halls for some of his supporters. Moving forward 2 years, the mask mandates are lifted, and life is making its way ever so closer to normals, and that means so is Stump Campaigning.
Marco Rubio is making stops along the east side of Florida, just on the outskirts of cities. Right now, he has stopped in specifically Melbourne and other stops in Brevard County, which is just outside of Orlando in September after coming from Jacksonville in August after being on the West Coast in Tampa earlier in the month. The stop in Tampa wasn't a one-on-one event, or even specifically for Rubio but more a kick-off for all republicans campaigning in Florida “Along with DeSantis, Rubio and Nuñez, Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody, Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis and Sen. Wilton Simpson, who is running for agriculture commissioner, spoke at the event” (Ellenbogen). This was somewhat the same in Jacksonville as Rubio was alongside Governor Desantis (Johnson). The stops in Brevard and Melbourne were much smaller and gave supporters a closer look at the candidate and interactions with him (Bailey).
One thing to note about Marco Rubio's stop in Brevard is that it was also a GOTV stop. As the registration for the country comes ever closer, he was encouraging voters to register if they weren’t yet. As said by Semiatin, “Increasing party registration is key for any voter mobilization effort” and “There is no mistaking that voter registration is highly predictive of who turns out on Election Day” (Semiatin). These efforts by Rubio to increase registration and therefore increase voter turnout and hugely important in a race where his opponent had been gaining on him steadily until recently.
Marco Rubio has also received a major endorsement from Former President Donald Trump, but I believe he shares the sentiment of many in that it can be a blessing or a curse. Rubio, so far, has handled the situation with grace, saying “his reelection won’t sink or swim because of Trump, insisting voters will judge his own record. Yet he’s careful not to criticize the former President – whether it’s on Trump’s recent suggestion to pardon the January 6 rioters, his removal of boxes of White House records to Mar-a-Lago or even the incessant conspiracies and lies about the 2020 election being stolen.” So he is graceful in acceptance of the Endorsement, but also not flashing or flaunting it around during his campaign. As said in “Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOD as Double-Edged Sword” by Isaac Arnsdorf, “Republicans privately say the reality is more complicated than most candidates are eager to admit. In the primary, Trump’s endorsement and the boost from a rally with him were the envy of all. In the general, though, Trump’s impact is decidedly more mixed. Especially in places where Republicans are hoping to make inroads into Democratic territory, Trump’s intervention is less welcome” (Arnsdorf et al).
Works Cited
DeleteArnsdorf, Isaac, et al. “Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-Edged Sword.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 5 Sept. 2022, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/03/trump-midterms-pennsylvania/.
Bailey, Craig. “Marco Rubio Campaign Stop in Melbourne.” Marco Rubio Campaigns in Melbourne, Florida Today, 18 Sept. 2022, www.floridatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/local/2022/09/18/marco-rubio-campaigns-melbourne/10417133002/.
Ellenbogen, Romy. “At Republican Rally in Tampa, Desantis Supports Candidates up and down the Ticket.” Tampa Bay Times, Tampa Bay Times, 25 Aug. 2022, www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2022/08/24/at-republican-rally-in-tampa-desantis-supports-candidates-up-and-down-the-ticket/.
Johnson, Scott. “DeSantis, Rubio Hit Campaign Trail with Stop at Diamond D Ranch in Jacksonville.” WJXT, WJXT News4JAX, 25 Aug. 2022, www.news4jax.com/vote-2022/2022/08/25/desantis-rubio-hit-campaign-trail-with-stop-at-diamond-d-ranch-in-jacksonville/.
Semiatin, Richard J. “Voter Mobilization.” Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, by Richard J. Semiatin, CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., 2021, pp. 80–99.
Stump campaigning can be an effective strategy for politicians to share their general views and get the attention of voters in different areas. Herschel Walker has been campaigning mostly in the already red cities and towns of Georgia, avoiding blue cities like Atlanta so far, but it could still be effective. Walker’s get out of the vote tactic is very heavily based on Trump. By visiting these rural, red places in Georgia, having a Trump endorsement and using stump speeches could actually be the road for Walker to win. In an article earlier this year in the New York Times titled “Amid Campaign Revamp, Herschel Walker Stumps Without a Stumble,” explains that Walker did exactly what he had to do during one of his stump speeches. Stick to the script, don’t make mistakes and avoid damaging his reputation any further. An uneventful speech is a good speech for Walker.
ReplyDeleteIn these speeches by Walker, he mainly talks about policies and a lot about the agriculture of Georgia, which has always been something he’s been in support of during his campaign. In an article by 11 Alive titled “Georgia's Herschel Walker skips details in bid to oust Raphael Warnock in Senate race: Report,” it says that Walker has been prioritizing aid to farmers and cutting environment regulations. This makes sense for Walker since the places he is campaigning have a high population of farmers and people who live in rural Georgia. Walker could not make the same stump speech in Atlanta or Savannah and be successful.
Voter access and integrity is extremely important, especially for this Georgia midterm election. According to Jeffrey Crouch in “Chapter 11: Voter Identification Laws and Ballot Access and Measures” in the book titled “Campaigns on the Cutting Edge” by Richard J. Semiatin, Georgia passed a state law in 2017 that could actually play an important role in the 2022 midterm election. The law states “potential voter’s personal identification has to exactly match state records in order to complete the individual’s voter registration process.” This law has a disproportionate impact on the African American people in Georgia who may not be able to vote. Although both candidates are black, we can assume based on many, many reasons, that these would-be voters would choose to vote for Warnock. Outside of that law, voter integrity is extremely important, especially when recalling the events following the 2020 presidential election. The events of January 6th, 2021 can be traced back to Donald Trump claiming voter fraud in the 2020 election, in which his millions of followers still believe to this day.
Trump also has his hands all over the 2022 midterm elections. In an article in the Washington Post titled “Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-Edged Sword,” where it says that Trump’s political advisors want him to start getting involved with Republican campaigns, even showing up to rallies in-person. Walker has been using his Trump endorsement to get many of his followers to support him in his upcoming election. In fact, it is what I believe is mainly keeping him afloat in this race. As Trump gets more involved, I expect Walker to have him appear at a few of his rallies, taking his Trump endorsement to the next level. Although Trump has been a key piece of his campaign so far, it will be interesting to see if Trump can actually hurt his campaign, rather than help.
Works Cited:
DeleteArnsdorf, Isaac, et al. “Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-Edged Sword.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 5 Sept. 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/03/trump-midterms-pennsylvania/?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_evening&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37d3d04%2F6313c069ab732227d00943dc%2F5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c%2F15%2F47%2F6313c069ab732227d00943dc&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83.
Crouch, Jeffrey. “Chapter 11: Voter Identification Laws and Ballot Access Measures.” In “The 2020 Presidential Campaign: A Communications Perspective” Edited by Robert E. Denton, Rowman & Littlefield, 2021. Accessed October 2nd, 2022.
King, Maya. “Amid Campaign Revamp, Herschel Walker Stumps without a Stumble.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 19 July 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/us/politics/herschel-walker-campaign.html.
Press, Associated. “Georgia's Herschel Walker Skips Details in Bid to Oust Raphael Warnock in Senate Race: Report.” 11Alive.Com, 28 Aug. 2022, https://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/georgias-herschel-walker-campaign-stops/85-1a2815f1-a648-46a0-ba04-5ad17b56da60.
As the son of someone who has run for political office multiple times, I understand the importance of stump speeches and get out the vote tactics more than many. Though from an insiders perspective, I don’t think stump speeches work as well as candidates think they do, but from a prospective voters standpoint, who only listens to the speech a few times, they can be very effective. By the time the 2020 election rolled around, I had pretty much my mom’s entire stump speech memorized because I had heard it so many times. In hindsight, that probably means the speech was effective, but I digress.
ReplyDeleteIn the case of Herschel Walker and large, state-wide races – especially in Georgia – GOTV campaigns are essential to winning a race and is a big reason Warnock won this race in 2020. In Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, Richard Semiatin explains that getting out the vote is more than just getting your base of registered voters out to the polls. “The results from 2016 point out that the key to any get-out-the-vote (GOTV) program relies on getting your base out to the polls and voters who match the profile of support for your candidate but who may not be thought of as traditional base voters. The discussion often neglects to mention the role that voter registration plays in this endeavor” (Semiatin). In 2020, the senate would not have been flipped without the initiatives of Stacy Abrams to register new voters. After losing the gubernatorial race by just 1.4%, Abrams knew that she had to mobilize the bloc of disincentivized black voters. According to a Politico report, “Her [Abrams] campaign and its allies registered more than 200,000 new voters in the run-up to the 2018 election. When Fair Fight and the New Georgia Project, two organizations founded by Abrams, tried again this year, they quadrupled their gains, registering more than 800,000 new voters” (King Politico). By registering over 1 million voters over those few years, she was able to close that 1.4 percent, and elect President Biden, Sen Ossoff, and Sen. Warnock – the first time Georgia had gone blue for president since 1992.
In terms of stump campaigning, Herschel Walker has not had the easiest go at it. In mid-July, a report from the New York Times (it happens to be the same reporter from the 2018 Politico Report) had a story about a successful stump speech. Yes, a successful stump speech. Walker has been ridden with gaffs, and misspoken lines throughout his stump campaigning leading to loads of criticism. Maya King articulated this better than anyone: “That seeming nonstory was actually news, given how Mr. Walker’s candidacy has been going recently, and it appeared to reflect the labors of a team of Republican operatives who have swooped in to turn around his campaign, after a string of unforced errors called into question his readiness for political prime time” (King NYT).
DeleteAnother big thing that Walker is relying on is his Trump endorsement. Though the effectiveness of the Trump endorsement can vary based on the campaign circumstances, Walker is using this to his advantage. The Washington Post reported in early September that Trump’s “political advisers are in early discussions with Republican campaigns about actively deploying him on the trail this fall” (WaPo). Only the results at the polls will tell how effective this is, but Trumps involvement is definitely a large component to the 2022 midterms.
Arnsdorf, Isaac, et al. “Trump Plots Aggressive Midterm Strategy Seen in GOP as Double-Edged Sword.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 5 Sept. 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/03/trump-midterms-pennsylvania/?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_evening&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37d3d04%2F6313c069ab732227d00943dc%2F5b2e6f76ae7e8a6f6d36dd7c%2F15%2F47%2F6313c069ab732227d00943dc&wp_cu=fc1d3fdfe3c43375337d40b422809773%7C6F5246A10D6D61FDE0530100007F0E83.
King, Maya. “Amid Campaign Revamp, Herschel Walker Stumps without a Stumble.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 19 July 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/us/politics/herschel-walker-campaign.html.
King, Maya. “How Stacey Abrams and Her Band of Believers Turned Georgia Blue.” POLITICO, 8 Nov. 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/08/stacey-abrams-believers-georgia-blue-434985.
Semiatin, Richard J. “Chapter 6 Survey Research and Campaigns: Challenges and Opportunities.” Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, 4th ed., CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA, 2021, pp. 65–79.