Image Politics, Polling & the Partisan Divide: Issues, Battlegrounds, and Voting Blocs

Tuesday, September 6, 2022

Issues, Battlegrounds, and Voting Blocs – Tuesday, September 13th (Blog #2)

Why are Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida important battlegrounds in the 2022 midterm election? What are the key demographic voting blocs that could make the difference in the races you’re tracking for the Election Eve Project? What are some of the key issues for voters in your state? Finally, offer your initial impressions on how your candidate is targeting these demographics and addressing these issues – what are they doing well and where can they improve? Remember that you must use one of the readings posted on the Daily Schedule, one of the readings from Blackboard, and an outside source to support your response.

34 comments:

Michael SingerSeptember 8, 2022 at 4:22 PM
In the upcoming 2022 midterm elections, there are three important battleground states that include Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida. These three states are important because they are all flip states that can lean either in favor of democrats or lean in favor of republicans. In chapter 10 of the text “The 2020 General Election Vote in a Divided American Electorate” written by Kenski & Kenski they explain that Biden retained the three won by Clinton in 2016 (Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire) and picked up five won by Trump in 2016 (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). Trump retained five of the battleground states that he had won in 2016 (Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas)” (Kenski & Kenski 2020). The graph following this quote helps explain why Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida are battleground states for the 2022 midterms because it explains that all two of the three states (Pennsylvania and Georgia) were one by Trump in 2016 and then won by Biden in 2020, leaving Florida as the lone state to not flip during the 2020 election. Just because it didn’t flip in the presidential election doesn’t mean that it won’t flip during the 2022 midterms.
Some of the key demographic voting blocs that could make the difference in the races that I’m tracking for the Election Eve Project is getting women to vote for my candidate. In chapter 12 of Campaigns on The Cutting Edge 4th Edition which was written by Susan A. MacManus and Amy N. Benner titled "Women and Campaigns: Generational Change, Growing Activism" they explain that over the years women have been getting more involved in politics, whether it is voting, donating and or campaigning themselves, they have been more active within the political landscape. Since women live longer than men do, they make up more of the population and according to MacManus and Benner, "Registering women and then persuading them to vote are key goals of every campaign – from start to finish. (MacManus and Benner 191). The next demographic bloc of people that could make the difference in the races that I’m tracking for the Election Eve Project is getting minorities to vote for my candidate. In chapter 13 of Campaigns on The Cutting Edge 4th Edition which was written by Atiya Kai Stokes-Brown titled "Minority Candidates and the New Landscape of Campaigns in the Twenty-First Century," she found out that there has been an increase in minority voters of the course of the years. In the chapter, she states that “"Latino voter turnout reaching 47.6 percent and Asian voter turnout increasing to 49.3 percent. Voter turnout among all racial and ethnic groups increased during the 2018 election, jumping anywhere from 10 to 13 percentage points when compared to 2014" (Brown 214). This shows that there is a giant group of women and minorities that can add a lot of votes for a candidate during the midterms coming up.
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Ryan BusilloSeptember 8, 2022 at 5:06 PM
Since Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida each have hotly contested senate and gubernatorial elections, they are battleground states in 2022. Each state is also a swing state, meaning in any given state-wide election either a Democrat or Republican can win. For the election eve project, I will be focusing on the Pennsylvania Senate election between Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Dr. Mehmet Oz from the perspective of Fetterman.
Some of the key demographic voting blocs in this race that will make the difference are young voters, African Americans, and working-class voters. Regarding African Americans, Campaigns on the Cutting Edge notes that “voting rates for African Americans, in particular, have steadily increased since 1996” (Stokes-Brown, 213). Since African American turnout is increasing, Fetterman can and should rely on those voters, particularly in Philadelphia. Regarding young voters, Fetterman has the advantage doubly. First, young voters already learn Democratic. Second, according to the New York Times, there is a great deal of frustration with the nations old leadership. The Times notes that “interviews with young voters reveal generational tensions driving their frustration…they have looked for help from politicians who are more than three times their age” (Weisman & King). Fetterman, 53, has the age advantage over the 62 year old Oz and would be one of the younger U.S. Senators, in a body rife with septuagenarians.
The large plurality of Pennsylvanians, according to a poll by Emerson College find the economy to be their most important issue this election. The economy, at 45% is followed by abortion (10%), then crime and immigration (6% each). This reflects the reality in the rest of the nation that we discussed in class today. I think Fetterman is well suited to address these concerns. His whole image is as an everyman, down to the sweatshirts and shorts he wears on the trail. Oz meanwhile, is a multimillionaire who owns many homes. In terms of policies, Fetterman seems to offer a swath of left wing populism that can appeal to union and working class voters.
Overall, I see Fetterman as well suited to win this close race. His economic populism gives him popular positions that relate to the working class and addresses the most important issue on the Keystone State’s mind. At the same time, Fetterman is well suited to turn out African Americans and young people due to the demographic reasons mentioned previously.
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Franco MorganteSeptember 10, 2022 at 7:53 PM
The senate races in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida have become incredibly important this election cycle because depending on which way the flip it could decide which party will have a majority in the senate. Pennsylvania has had a lot of focus on it because it's unclear which way it could flip. In 2016 the state went for Trump and in 2020 the state went for Biden. Since this race could decide the senate majority, this unpredictable race has become arguably the most important race this cycle.

What are the key voting issues in Pennsylvania?:
So, with this contentious election, what topics are the Pennsylvania voters most concerned about? According to a poll conducted by the washington examiner, as of September 6th the top five issues are education (96%), crime (54%), taxes (49%), inflation (20%), and abortion (16%) in that order (Mondeaux, paragraph 1). Education has become the top issue after recent legislation was introduced. According to that same Washington Examiner article “State lawmakers already advanced legislation late last year that would have required schools to publish curriculum materials on their public websites to prevent controversial topics from being discussed in the classroom. However, that bill was later vetoed by Wolf, who called it a “thinly veiled attempt to restrict truthful instruction and censor content reflecting various cultures, identities, and experiences” (Mondeaux, paragraph 7). The issue of classroom transparency has been an issue Republicans have been running recently so this could be an area that gives them an advantage. While abortion is listed as the least important of the top five, it is an issue that a lot of democratic voters are passionate about, especially with the top republican candidate Dr.Oz saying that he is pro-life, it’s possible that large waves democractic voters could go out to vote on abortion alone.

What key demographics will play a role in Pennsylvania?:
The discussion of demographics that could swing the election one way has also been very unpredictable. While a lot of emphasis has been placed the Supreme Court decision has ignited female and young voters. I think that one of the biggest voter demographics that will play a role in these elections are voters that are frustrated with their party leadership. The idea of “who is a real republican” or “who is a real democrat” has become a popular question since Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump ran. However, that concept has exploded ever since 2020. Republicans have especially been going after each other, saying that establishment republicans are RINOs and the MAGA candidates are the real republicans. This has led many republican candidates to release ads attacking the RINOs. According to an article from USA TODAY ”Eric Greitens, a former Missouri governor running for U.S. Senate this year, drew criticism from both parties when he released a new ad on social media June 20 in which he was carrying a gun and told the audience: "Today we are going RINO hunting" (Woodall, paragraph 25). While people may find this kind of rhetoric hyperbolic or shocking, this has been getting the republican base excited to vote. This rhetoric has shown its power when longtime republican Liz Cheny was voted out in favor of a Trump-backed opponent. Even democratic candidates have embraced this idea, although not as bombastically. John Fetterman has taken the Bernie Sanders route and has tried to appeal to the blue collar base that voted for Trump in 2016. He’s advertising himself as a reset candidate for the democratic base and with his presence on apps like Tik Tok he can appeal to young voters who feel the democratic candidates don’t match their views. The party frustrated voter has a high chance of making a major difference in the upcoming elections.

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Will GillogleySeptember 11, 2022 at 9:04 AM
Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida are well-known for being swing states, especially in the 2020 election. Not to mention, most of the candidates for these states in the 2022 midterms are not politicians by trade and are media celebrities. The republican nominees for Pennsylvania and Florida are Mehmet Oz, a tv personality, and Herschel Walker, a former NFL player. The reason I think these are important battleground states is that the results of the election will reveal whether people are comfortable with traditionally non-governmental figures taking up governmental roles
As for the key demographics for the voting blocs, I believe the two most important demographics are young people, specifically women. An article titled “Young Voters Are Fed Up with Their (Much) Older Leaders” by Maya King and Johnathan Weisman talks about the younger generation’s dissatisfaction with the American political sphere. Young voters want actual change to happen and feel disheartened with the current government officials' lack of change. Approximately 94% of Democrats under the age of 30 would prefer a new candidate to run in the next election. To quote the article directly, “They’re eager for innovative action on the problems they stand to inherit, they said, rather than returning to what worked in the past” (King).
I think women are also an important voter demographic to pay attention to because of the 2018 midterms. More political activism was shared among Democratic women as they ran, won, and donated to more campaigns than usual. Democratic women also donated substantially more amount of money to their respective candidates, donating around $159 million compared to the $19 million Republican candidates received in 2018. (MacManus 193) In recent elections, women seem to be more active and involved in politics. If I was a campaign manager, I would think that the younger generation of women would be an important demographic to pay attention to, especially because of the recent overturning of Roe v. Wade.
For Pennsylvania, some of the biggest issues the public wants to be addressed are inflation, the economy, and abortion rights. The candidate I’m following, John Fetterman (D), seems to be targeting some of these issues. Fetterman has a lead with abortion voters and is lagging when it comes to inflation/economy voters. An article in TIMESLEADER titled “SP&R poll: In Senate race, Fetterman holds ‘tenuous lead’ by Bob O’Boyle speculates that Oz has the potential to win out in the end if people don’t believe the economy has improved. Overall, I think Fetterman is doing ok. He seems to be targeting the younger generation of women with his pro-abortion stance and is leading in voters 55 and younger. This is important as TIMESLEADER states that voters aged 55 and younger are likely going to represent six out of ten voters. Going forward, he might want to improve in targeting demographics that are affected more by inflation and the economy abortion doesn’t affect everyone.

Works Cited
MacManus, Susan A. Benner, Amy N. “Women and Campaigns: Generational Change, Growing Activism” Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, 4th ed., edited by Richard J. Semiatin, CQ Press, 2020, pp. 190-213
King, Maya, and Jonathan Weisman. “Young Voters Are Fed up with Their (Much) Older Leaders.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 14 July 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/us/politics/youth-voters-midterms-polling.html.
O'Boyle, Bill. “SP&R Poll: In Senate Race Fetterman Holds 'Tenuous Lead'.” Times Leader, Times Leader, 5 Sept. 2022, https://www.timesleader.com/news/1573186/sptenuous-lead.

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Jennifer MogliaSeptember 11, 2022 at 5:39 PM
Jennifer Moglia

Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida are important battlegrounds in the 2022 midterm election because they are states that often “flip” or “swing” between leaning Democrat and leaning Republican. Securing one or multiple of these dates during a presidential election can be crucial to winning a race. Similarly, a party can “secure” a state by having their candidate win that state’s senate race, so the swing states are still extremely relevant despite the fact that there is no presidential election this year.

The race I will be focusing on is Herschel Walker vs. Senator Raphael Warnock for the Georgia senate. One of the key demographic voting blocs for this race is people of color. According to “Minority Candidates and the New Landscape of Campaigns in the Twenty-First Century” by Atiya Kai Stokes-Brown in Campaigns on the Cutting Edge by Richard J. Semiatin, the increasing numbers of people of color in the United States has a huge impact on political races. However, candidates who are people of color are mostly known for running more progressive, left-leaning campaigns, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former President Barack Obama. What is unique about Walker, the candidate I am focusing on, is that he is a black man running with the Republican party. This makes republicans, and more specifically, republicans who supported former President Donald Trump, a key voting bloc as well.

It has been clear that Trump’s supporters are extremely loyal and passionate for a long time, but it has become even more evident throughout the hearings about the events of January 6th, 2021, when flocks of his supporters participated in a rally at the United States Capitol that turned violent. When asked why they traveled to the Capitol and attempted to enter, one of Trump’s supporters stated that they truly believed that votes had been stolen and that it was their duty to keep him in office (Reilly). If this level of devotion was shown towards Trump, it could be interesting to see if Trump supporters become a voting bloc of their own to support future Republican candidates. Recent events show that this could be the case, with Trump referring to Walker as a “shining star” and officially endorsing him per The Washington Times this past Saturday, September 10th. Multiple polls now have Walker leading Warnock, including Emerson College, which had Walker at 46% support and Warnock at 44% support (Soellner).

The main issues Walker is focusing on are border security, limited government, and stronger public safety. This is one of his strengths, as these issues are relevant right now. However, he is not doing a great job of handling one of the most hot-button issues in the United States right now: racism. Walker has been quoted saying that Senator Warnock wants to divide the country and thinks that America is full of racist people, while he thinks the opposite and wants to bring this country of great people together. While this may appeal to the voting blocs of Trump supporters and white voters, I’m interested to see how this goes down with people of color. 95% of the ballots in the primary that Walker won were cast by white people (Caputo and Gomez), so he seems to have a strong amount of support there. I think that his focus should be on winning over undecided white people and people of color who may lean more left than right. I think that he could do this by using less harsh/extreme language when it comes to racism; he can keep his stance, but being a bit less aggressive could work in his favor.
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Palek SinghSeptember 12, 2022 at 5:54 PM
Palek Singh

Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida are important battlegrounds in the 2022 midterm election because these states tend to be swing states. Unlike Connecticut which remains a blue state in almost every election, PA, GA, and FL will flip flop between being red or blue states. It is important for candidates to appeal to these swing states more because getting their votes can impact the outcome of an election. Also, “battleground states are the most important because they are more influential in determining electoral outcomes and targeted the most heavily by the campaigns”(Kenski & Kenski 179). The key demographic voting blocs that could make a difference for the race I’m tracking is getting young people to also vote because currently only the older people are motivated to vote in the midterm election in Pennsylvania. The New York Times article states, “many [young people] feel disengaged and deflated, with only 32% saying they are “almost certain”to vote in November. Nearly half said they did not think their vote made a difference”(King & Weisman). According to Pennsylvania Capital Star, “Pennsylvania women aged 50-plus are a force to be reckoned with in this midterm cycle, They account for nearly a third(32%) of all likely voters, and more than a half(53%) of likely voters aged 50 and older”(Micek). Acknowledging this information, I believe that it would be beneficial for Mehmet Oz (R)- the candidate I will be tracking for the midterm election, to focus on issues that would be important to voters aged 50 and up because they will be the majority of the participating voters. Micek also states that, “nearly half(49%) put gas prices and the cost(27%) at the top of their priorities list.”

To get his votes, Oz should concentrate on resolving the economic issues in PA. Based on the age demographics and issues the voters are finding the most important in PA, it seems to me that the state is leaning right. I predict this because results from the 8.31.22 QU poll showed that the majority of registered Republicans regarded inflation as the biggest issue in the U.S. The poll also revealed that inflation is considered a priority for the majority of individuals aged 50-64. Taking this all into consideration, I’m not sure if Mehmet Oz will appeal to young voters in his state because statistics show that majority of younger voters tend to be leaning left, and they usually believe issues such as abortion to be one of the most important. The majority of young people have expressed their disagreement and criticized the Supreme Court’s recent decision. On his campaign website, it says that Dr. Oz is pro-life, so abortion rights will not be on his agenda. The website also lists growing the economy as one of his main issues. “Dr. Oz believes that restoring America’s economy begins by focusing on the problems we face here at home–and reversing Biden’s failed agenda” This will appeal to Oz’s voters that believe inflation is a current big problem.

Work Cited:
Kenski, Kate and Henry C. Kenski. “The 2020 General Election Vote in a Divided American Electorate.” In The 2020 Presidential Campaign: A Communication Perspective, edited by Robert E. Denton, Rowman & Littlefield, 2021.
King, Maya, and Jonathan Weisman. “Young Voters Are Fed up with Their (Much) Older Leaders.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 14 July 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/us/politics/youth-voters-midterms-polling.html.
John L. Micek, Pennsylvania Capital-Star July 21. “Why Pa. Women Aged 50-plus Are in the Drivers Seat in 2022: Thursday Morning Coffee - Pennsylvania Capital.” Star, 21 July 2022, https://www.penncapital-star.com/campaigns-elections/why-pa-women-aged-50-plus-are-in-the-drivers-seat-in-2022-thursday-morning-coffee/.
Dr. Oz for Senate, 7 Sept. 2022, https://doctoroz.com/.
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AnonymousSeptember 12, 2022 at 6:55 PM
Caitlyn Piascik

Pennsylvania, Georgia and Florida are the important battlegrounds in the 2022 midterm election because they are the flip states that can lean in favor of either the Democrats or Republicans. Also known as “swing” or “purple states that can go either way. For the purposes of the midterm election, these states decide control of the House and the Senate.

Voting blocs are groups of voters that are strongly motivated by a specific common concern or group of concerns to the point that such concerns tend to dominate their voting patterns and ultimately causing them to vote together in elections. The key voting blocs that could make a difference in the races we are tracking for the Election Eve Project include: Blue-collar/working class, whites, college-educated voters, black voters, Hispanics/Latinx and Asian Americans, Youth vote, undecided voters and unenthusiastic voters. According to Culture Wars Could Be a Winning Issue – for Democrats, gun violence, abortion rights, inflation costs, border security and pandemic recovery are some of the key issues for voters in our state. (Kane).

According to Chapter 12 of Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, microtargeting is more important for targeting these demographics and addressing these issues than ever. (MacManus 190). Microtargeting can be seen as a form of targeting that uses technology to gather large amounts of online data. The data from any given individual’s digital footprint is then analyzed to create and convey messages that reflect an individual’s preferences and political personality. Politicians usually analyze an entire group based upon trends in poll data – then use the issues that group cares about in order to draw them to vote. According to The Year of the Youth Vote by Hailey Womer, “Historically, youth voters (ages 18-29) have had the lowest voter turnout when participating in national and local elections with only 28% of eligible youth voters casting their votes. With 23 million eligible Gen Z voters this year, this large but historically inactive voting demographic is a challenging yet necessary group of voters that presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump targeted in the 2016 election using Facebook and Instagram advertisements,” (Womer). I find it that candidates often rely on these ads in order to gain responses from demographics who don’t typically follow political news or engage with traditional mainstream media outlets. However, I don’t really think this method of microtargeting is very ethical because it is literally taking the mass opinion of a certain demographic and using that to speak for an entire subgroup of the population. I don’t believe that every Gen Z voter casts their votes the same, neither do all women or individuals who belong to a certain race. So, I think that there could be better methods for targeting different demographics and I think the idea implemented in the 2016 election of using social media was a prime example of a way that political media should be evolving to – cutting out the mainstream media middleman and going directly to the people themselves, and seeing what they care about or respond to.

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Anya GrondalskiSeptember 12, 2022 at 10:17 PM
Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida carry some of the highest numbers of electoral votes, 20, 16, and 29 respectively. Pennsylvania, specifically, has been the determining state for 20 out of the 25 presidential elections (ABCNews). At Five ThirtyEight, Pennsylvania is believed to have a 37% chance of deciding the outcome of a presidential election (ABCNews). Additionally, these three states are large and have widely split political views. For the upcoming election, each race has a household name running as one of the party candidates. In Pennsylvania, the Republican nominee is Dr. Oz, a longtime television star, author, and retired cardiothoracic surgeon. Herschel Walker, a former American football running back is running as a Republican in Georgia, and finally, Marco Rubio is running in Florida for the seat he has held since 2011. The celebrity aspect of these races will influence the election outcomes in an unpredictable way. Notoriety is not often a measured factor in public opinion polls, so a voter’s familiarity or likeness for a personality could influence their vote more than that candidates’ values or political capability.

For the Election Eve project, I am tracking Pennsylvania’s Senate race. According to the Pew Research Center and data gathered by the U.S. Census, Pennsylvania voters in the year 2019 were primarily female (51.6%), middle-aged (33.8%), and overwhelmingly white (83.3%) (Stacker). Additionally, about a third of these voters had only a high school education (Stacker). The level of education and ethnicity of voters could bode well for my candidate Dr. Oz seeing as historically, the more education you have, measured in degrees, the more liberal your political position. Additionally, white people are more likely to vote Republican (Phillips). The article “Gen Z is Influencing the Abortion Debate” outlines the importance of youth mobilization, following the personal activism story of two young women (Kingsberry). Chapter 12 of Semiatin also addresses this, saying “Millennials “differ markedly from past generations,” having been shaped by “Massive advancements in technology, unparalleled communication access, and more media exposure.” (MacManus & Benner 191). Tik Tok has accelerated the spread of political messaging, Ioana Literat, an associate professor at Teachers College at Columbia University says; “So TikTok, I think, is such a fitting space for those discussions because political expression on TikTok is quintessentially personal” (Kingsberry). It is increasingly important this election cycle that candidates target voters aged 18-24, as they have become more involved with politics. Since younger voters have more liberal voting habits, it will be extra important that Republicans, like Dr. Oz, get those votes. That bloc could change the outcome. Nationwide issue like rising crime rates, inflation and the economy, public safety, and worker’s rights will dominate debates. One major issue will be abortion, following the Dobbs decision this summer. In Pennsylvania, topics like election reform, cannabis legalization, and federal relief funds are being discussed. On September 12, the Pennsylvania house committee streamlined three bills to secure the election process and clean up the polls with the aim to prevent voter fraud by deceased individuals (Gorsegner). Fetterman, the Democratic candidate running for PA seat has pushed Biden multiple times to legalize weed in PA and the whole U.S. (Lee)
Dr. Oz is trailing behind Fetterman because of some of his more liberal beliefs and poor press management. He recently tweeted in support of same-sex marriage, and media about the Republican candidate has been dominated by damaging quotes saying he supports incestual relations and thinks no smoker in the U.S. should get hired. Oz has also flip-flopped on one of the major deciding issues- abortion. His position as a licensed medical professional complicates this.
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Connor YoungbergSeptember 12, 2022 at 10:32 PM
Pennsylvania, Georgia and Florida are extremely important battlegrounds for the 2022 midterm elections because they are swing states, meaning the state could go either way during the midterm elections. The midterm election race in these states are very close and the winner could very well be unpredictable up until the day of the election. All three of these states could even have a major impact on the 2024 presidential election depending on if they swing republican or democratic, making these states important battlegrounds.

Georgia will be the midterm election race I will be focusing on. Two key demographic voting blocs that could make a difference in this midterm election are race and celebrity culture. According to “Minority Candidates and the New Landscape of Campaigns in the Twenty-First Century” by Atiya Kai Stokes-Brown in “Campaigns on the Cutting Edge” by Richard J. Semiatin, minority campaigns have adopted tactics to attempt to get rid of any disadvantages that come with being a candidate of color, which is attributed to the racial conservatism of white voters. What makes the Georgia midterm special, is that both the republican candidate, Herschel Walker, and democratic candidate, Senator Raphael Warnock, are people of color. In most cases, candidates of color are often left-leaning and running in the democratic party, which makes race a massive voting bloc in the Georgia midterm election.

Another voting bloc in the Georgia midterm election is celebrity culture. Herschel Walker is not only the republican candidate, but also a former pro-bowl running back for the Dallas Cowboys. We have seen celebrities go into politics many times before, such as Arnold Schwarzenegger becoming the governor of California many years back. However, the most important celebrity turned politician is Donald Trump, who has a massive impact on this Georgia midterm election. According to The New York Times, “Mr. Walker ran largely on Mr. Trump’s endorsement and his own popularity in the state, which has lingered since he powered the University of Georgia to a national championship in 1980 and then won the Heisman Trophy in 1982” (Weisman). Donald Trump has a very loyal and extreme fanbase that could result in his supporters rallying for Walker. A famous instance of Trump supporters being extreme is the storming of the capital on January 6th. When Trump claimed that the 2020 election had been stolen, his supporters believed him and decided to storm the capital. Following their heinous actions, rioters believed that Trump himself would agree with their decisions and support his actions. Some even said they were invited by the president (Reilly). Having that kind of support behind Walker could be an instrumental key to a potential victory in the Georgia 2022 midterm elections.

Herschel Walker has focused much of his campaign around securing the borders, family values and the support of the police. While his take on the so-called border crisis may earn him a few votes from Georgia residents with conservative values, his take on policing and gun violence is showing that he is not a politician by any means, in my opinion. I think he is quite uneducated on the topic of gun violence, which is not good considering it is one of the biggest problems America faces today.
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Katie LangleySeptember 12, 2022 at 11:05 PM

Going into writing this blog, I spent some time scrolling through Val Demming’s TikTok page. Demmings has posted everything from dances with her granddaughter to jabs at her opponent, Marco Rubio’s reputation of being an “absentee senator.” Demming’s team, though she is 65 years old, has honed in on a rising campaign strategy to reach young people: TikTok trends. Atiya Kai Stokes-Brown (2021) writes that microtargeting specific voters through social media is particularly important for minority and female candidates, such as Demmings. While traditional models of communication like television and radio advertisements are still important for campaigns to reach older generations, for young people, politics is increasingly moving online (pp.220.)
“Getting out the vote” to the largest audience possible is important for Demming and Rubio’s Florida senate race, because this crucial race could make or break senate control for the democrats. There’s also the symbolic factor of Demmings, a black, female former police chief and moderate democrat, being the underdog to Rubio, a Trump-supported conservative republican who has held the seat for 12 years. Demmings is targeting many different groups within Florida that could win the race for her; “political moderates could admire her centrism; people of color could identify with her race; women could identify with her gender,” (Harris, 2022, par. 6.) In other words, for a state that historically goes red, Demmings could be the centrist candidate that gets some swing voters to decide in her favor.
Demmings is targeting these groups by putting a lot of money into ads, outspending Rubio “by a greater than 2 to 1 ratio… even when including the help the incumbent has received from outside Republican and conservative groups” (Roarty, 2022, par. 3.) One concept that Demming’s ads focus on is law and order, a possible appeal to more conservative or independent voters who might align themselves more with the interests of law enforcement. MacManus and Benner (2021) write that women candidates are viewed as knowing less about crime and the military (pp.196.) However, Demmings served in law enforcement in Orlando for 27 years. Demming’s campaign website (2022) states her appeal to supporters of law enforcement: “As Orlando Police Chief, Val Demings oversaw a 40% drop in violent crime. In Congress, the Chief has fought to increase funding for our law enforcement officers, so communities across Florida can have the resources they need to hire more officers and keep us all safe.”
Demmings is also targeting a demographic who is angry about recent policy decisions in Florida, such as the restriction of abortion and the “Dont Say Gay” bill. According to Kane (2022), these “culture war” issues, like protecting abortion, could help democrats win key seats. Demmings has even taken to TikTok to let voters know how she feels on these issues, with videos where she discusses republicans taking away a woman’s right to choose and shows students protesting against the “Don’t Say Gay” bill. This is both an attempt to appeal to younger voters– through the use of social media– and to appeal to the anger of black, female and LGBTQ+ Floridians. By targeting these more progressive issues and also remaining the centrist, law-and-order candidate against a more radical, Trump-supported choice, Demmings appears to be linkening herself to all Florida voters who don’t subscribe to far-right beliefs.
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Melina MaldonadoSeptember 12, 2022 at 11:29 PM

Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida are essential battlegrounds in the 2022 midterm election because they are swing states, meaning that past results have shown us that they can fall to either party due to the similar amount of support from both parties. This makes it hard for us to predict the results because it is hard for us to determine where they lean. According to Chapter 10 in The 2020 General Election Vote in a Divided American Electorate, “In 2020, Biden retained the three won by Clinton in 2016 (Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire) and picked up five won by Trump in 2016 (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin)” (Kenski & Kenski, 179). Although Florida is not on that list, they are still considered a swing state from past elections. An article from Wesh.com writes, “Six times in a row, Florida voted for the winner, which three times was a Democrat and three times Republican, and the average margin for the winner was just 2.7% the smallest in the country.” (Dukes). The three states also hold very high numbered votes in the electoral college that determines the presidential election, but as for the midterms, them being swing states is the reason for their importance.
Key demographic voting blocs that could make a difference in the race I am tracking for the Election Eve Project include generational differences. With most of Generation Z being able to vote in 2022, it is present that the majority of that generation likes to speak up about their values and although Generation X and Boomers like to do so as well, these values tend to differ. In a study done by Pew Research Center in 2020, it was shown that 61% of Gen Z voters were definitely or probably going to vote for a democratic president compared to 22% who were planning on voting for Trump. And as for Gen X and Boomers, 37% and 44% planned on supporting Trump. These generational differences play a role in the midterm elections because Gen Z is only getting older which means we might see an even higher vote for the democratic party if we are going by the research done for the 2020 election. A more recent topic that Gen Z has started to advocate for is the overturning of Roe v. Wade. An article from the Washington Post talks about two influencers who are fighting on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to abortion rights. Even though they are on the other side of each other, they are influencing the generation as a whole on TikTok as “Gen Z makes up more than 60 percent of users” (Kingsberry). There may be two sides between any voting generation out there, but the majority of the specific generations tend to form voting blocs, especially in the midterm elections.
I am tracking Democrat Val Demings for the U.S. Senate for Florida and on first impression, I think she is doing a great job of advocating for her democratic views. She focuses on issues such as building the economy, driving down crime rates, affordable healthcare, affordable housing, climate change, increasing the funding for police for safety, and national security. I also took a look at her Twitter and she has made it very prevalent that she supports abortion rights for women. A big thing that she believes in is giving Floridians the American Dream and I feel like that is what she posts about most. She is very active on social media such as Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and TikTok. I can tell she is trying to reach out to her younger audiences by advocating for the things she believes in on social media. I believe she can improve on comparing herself. I think telling the public that she can do better is a good strategy, but the way she is posting it throws me off in a way. For example, one of her Tweets states, “I need your help! The latest polls show that Rubio is taking the lead. We must stop him and protect our Democratic Senate majority!” (Demings). It sounds too vulnerable and I think she needs to show a bit more strength. Overall, the midterm elections will show us what we need to know for the 2024 elections and I am excited to see where my generation falls.
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Amber ManginiSeptember 12, 2022 at 11:31 PM
Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida are important battlegrounds for the 2022 Midterm elections because they are considered “swing states” meaning they are divided politically and either candidate could potentially win as these states switch between Blue and Red often. These states are going to be especially important during the Midterm elections because candidates will focus their time and energy on either flipping the state's opinion or fighting to keep their vote by targeting them with advertising, campaign visits, speeches, and more.
I believe the key demographic voting bloc that could make a huge difference in the Florida Midterm elections is age. In the book Campaigns on The Cutting Edge, Atiya Kai Stokes-Brown said, “It is true that ‘each generation has its story, and no two generations are alike.’ Millennials differ markedly from past generations,’ having been shaped by massive advancements in technology, unparalleled communication access, and more media exposure.’ Gen Zers are more social media savvy and value privacy, multiculturalism, and personal security more than millennials” (Stokes-Brown 191). In addition to this, Atiya Kai Stokes-Brown also stated, “Older women turn out at higher rates than younger women” (Stokes-Brown 191). Older voters, also known as “Baby Boomers,” are going to be a key demographic voting bloc in Florida because their extremist views are focused solely on issues like Social Security, Medicare, inflation, and taxes. Older votes are consistent with showing up at polls and make great differences in elections.
There are quite a few key issues for Florida Voters. According to the Florida Chamber of Commerce’s statewide poll, the top issue for both male and female voters is jobs and the economy. The second top issue for Florida voters is education, with inflation and gas prices in third. The Florida Chamber of Commerce’s poll also showed the top issues for Democratic Florida voters are tied between education and the environment.
I personally believe Val Demings is doing a good job at targeting top issues for Florida voters. For example, on the topic of jobs and the economy, Val Demings presses her history of coming up from nothing and knowing the importance of the dollar bill. Deming's entire campaign is written around making the “American Dream” accessible to everyone. In addition to jobs and the economy, Val Demings is also focusing on the issue of the environment by opposing offshore drilling on the coasts and giving funding to fight toxic algae in the waterways. While Demings has shown great attention to pressing issues for Florida voters it is hard for potential voters to see quick changes that will initiate their vote. In the article Culture Wars Could Be a Winning Issue- for Democrats, Paul Kane said “ None of these measures will help slow inflation by the November elections, however, leaving Democrats vulnerable to the whims of global energy markets and clogged supply chains” continuing, Kane said, “Democrats hope that this spate of recent legislative productivity — including bipartisan majorities passing laws to help the semiconductor industry and to help veterans of overseas wars who experience health problems — will appeal to their liberal base” (Kane). Paul Kane is telling us that candidates must rely on the voter's openness to see their efforts towards issues because actual progress on top issues takes longer than just the campaign process. Therefore, I believe Van Deming's approach to showing her efforts and work toward change to a great tactic for her campaign.
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William GavinSeptember 13, 2022 at 12:31 AM
The key influence of Georgia, Florida and Pennsylvania lies in their nature as "swing states," as well as their potential impact on partisan control in the United States Senate. Currently, the specific seats up for grabs in November are Florida Republican Marco Rubio’s seat; retiring Republican from Pennsylvania Pat Toomey’s seat; and Georgia Democrat Dr. Raphael Warnock’s seat. Each of these states has a history of avoiding a reputation as a partisan stronghold. For example, all three states were won by former President Donald Trump in 2016 (2016 Presidential Election Results). Then in 2020, President Joe Biden narrowly won both Georgia and Pennsylvania, by 12,670 votes and 81,660 votes, respectively(Swasey and Jin). On the other hand, the voting margin in Florida was much closer; Trump overtook Biden by about three percentage points, or 371,686 votes(Florida presidential results). Additionally, each of these races will be a test of the power of celebrity, which Trump proved could turn the tide of an election with distinctly famous Trump-adjacent (but not Trump) candidates; each of the leading Republican candidates in the 2022 Senate elections are famous; Pennsylvania's Mehmet Oz is a celebrity doctor, Florida's Rubio is a Republican superstar, and Georgia's Herschel Walker is a college football hall of famer.

For a variety of reasons, most notably the overturning of Roe v. Wade by the conservative majority in the United States Supreme Court, female voters will be one of the key demographics in the upcoming election in Pennsylvania; not only as voters, but as financial supporters. In 2018, there was a "sharp increase in the number of women donors to political campaigns," especially Democratic women; women contributed $159 million to female Democratic congressional candidates in 2018(MacManus and Benner 194). In a similar, but substantially smaller, vein, Republican women gave female Republican candidates just $19 million, while donating $71 million to male Republican candidates(MacManus and Bennet 194). After Roe was overturned, Democrats across the nation began ranking abortion as their most important policy; one poll found that 45% of Democrats selected abortion as their most important policy issue(Kane), while an August Franklin & Marshall College poll found that 52% of Pennsylvania voters believe that abortion should be legal "under certain circumstances," and an additional 37% believe abortion should be legal "under any circumstances,"(Poll Release: August 2022).

As such, Oz is fighting somewhat of an uphill battle attempting to appeal to women voters as, according to a report from Democratic voter data firm Target Smart, since Roe was overturned, women have outpaced men "by about 12 percentage points" and 62% of women registering to vote did so as a Democrat; in total, about 63,200 voters registered in the last two months (and change) (Terruso and Lai). Furthermore, Oz committed the cardinal sin of politics recently—flip-flopping. After audio resurfaced from 2019, in which Oz stated that "Life starts at conception," the candidate clarified that despite his "strongly pro-life" views, he supported exceptions for rape, incest, or to save the mother’s life(Parish). This may result in Oz gaining some support back, but could easily cost him support in return with religious, usually white, men—a key GOP voter bloc. To make up for this, the Oz campaign is playing it safe by shifting focus to issues that suburban women and Republicans care about: crime. In Oz’s first TV ad in the general election, Oz attacks sanctuary cities, "weak" prosecution, and "failed liberal policies" for elevating crime(Philadelphia recently passed its 300th homicide of 2022); currently, the Oz campaign and the National Republican Senate Committee have spent $380,000 on airtime, and plan to spend $2 million over the next few weeks(Terruso).
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AnonymousSeptember 13, 2022 at 1:06 AM
William Dean
The importance of Florida, Georgia and Pennsylvania in the 2022 midterms cannot be understated. First, there is the issue of simple arithmetic. Between these states, there are three Senate seats, three governorships and some 59 Representatives up for grabs. Second, these states are generally regarded as swing states, and midterm elections have massive ramifications for the Presidential elections coming up. How these elections go could turn the Biden leadership into a lame duck presidency or give him a mandate for his agenda.
As I’m part of the Rubio team for the Election Eve Project, I will focus specifically on Florida’s demographics. It is worth noting that that Florida has gained three House seats over the past ten years, more than any other state aside from Texas (U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau). If these trends continue, Florida will have control of the entire House of Representatives by the year 4340. On a more serious note, Census data indicates that Florida is older, whiter and more Hispanic than the national average.
The issue of the Hispanic voting bloc is an interesting one, as it has historically voted Democrat. However, Hispanics tend to be less favorable of Democrats than other minorities, as detailed in numerous polls. For instance, Quinnipiac’s August 31st poll found that “Black adults (81 – 13 percent) and Hispanic adults (63 – 30 percent) approve of Biden’s [student loan] plan” (Schwartz). Additionally, Hispanics are the least likely of any racial minority to vote for a Democratic House candidate according to a recent Pew poll (Pew Research Center). Finally, and perhaps most important of all, the same Pew poll found that Hispanics disapproved 50% to 47% of Biden’s job in office.
These statistics are all boons for Rubio’s campaign. The dual support from Hispanics and older whites allows for both landline and cellphone-based advertising. Nelson details that these two groups tend to use phones differently, as “sixty-eight percent of Latinos were cell-only users” whereas “just 31 percent of Americans sixty-five and older” were cell only (Semiatin and Nelson 68).
Furthermore, Floridian Hispanics are unusually predisposed to leaning Republican. This is because of the “dry foot” policy extended to Cuban refugees and the Party’s comparatively more anti-Communist stance. Rubio is often marked among the more moderate Republicans, walking the line between staying in the graces of the Trump base while not appearing to be a Trump Republican himself. In the recent Mar-a-Lago dispute, Rubio “suggests that the entire DOJ investigation appears to be politically motivated” but still “join[ed] forces with a top Democrat to demand a formal assessment of any damages to national security related to Trump’s handling of the documents” (Desiderio).
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Cj BenedettiSeptember 13, 2022 at 3:49 AM
Cj Benedetti
Halfway through her term Vice President Kamala Harris has, as of September 12th, 2022, cast 29 tie-breaking votes in the Senate (“Votes to Break Ties in the Senate”). That is good to place her as the Vice President with the 3rd highest amount of tie-breaking votes and the most cast since Vice-President George M. Dallas with 19 from 1845-1849. She is just 5 shy of John C. Calhoun, who served for 7 years (Sentate.gov). I promise this is going somewhere. This is important for the same reason the states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida are important in these upcoming midterm elections. It's important because right now, the Senate is completely split. 50-50. Specifically, Georgia, Florida, and Pennsylvania are all listed as battleground states in “The 2020 General Election Vote in a Divided American Electorate,” written by Kate Kenski and Henry Kenski. They describe these battleground states as “the most important because they are more influential in determining electoral outcomes and targeted the most heavily by the campaigns.” (Kenski and Kenski). This also holds true for Senate seat elections. These seats are the ones that each campaign has the highest likelihood of flipping or holding to gain control or keep control of the Senate.
Specifically, I have been looking at the Senate race in Florida. One of the key voting blocs that could make a difference in this race is younger voters. Specifically millennials and Gen Zers. This is described best by Susan MacManus and Amy Benner when they said, “the 2020 election cycle will find younger votes wielding an immense influencer over how parties and candidates get out the critical female vote” (MacManus and Benner 205) in Campaigns on the Cutting Edge. They further describe another important voting bloc in this election, the female demographic. They said, “women will be heavily targeted by both parties, and they will play key roles as candidates, campaign consultants, fundraisers, and grassroots organizers in messaging and mobilizing other women” (MacManus and Benner 205).
Let's take a look at what issues could decide the Senate race in Florida. According to an AARP Florida poll released on September 7th, there are a number of issues to discuss. Five issues received double-digit percentages for the top issues. Inflation received the highest amount of votes at 15%, followed by Social Security / Medicare and Taxes at 12%, followed by Immigration and Abortion at 11%. I think the breakdown of which party put what as their key issues will give us more key insights. Registered Democrats polled Abortion at 22%, Social Security at 20%, and Voting Rights at 11%. While registered Republicans polled, Inflation at 20%, Taxes & Immigration at 19% (AARP Florida). I wanted to note this because of how different it is on each side of the aisle right now, and I personally don’t think that they will be trying to pull voters from either side.
I especially don’t expect Marco Rubio to back down and give into any issues that democrats put at their top issues because “Republicans decry ‘identity politics’ and insist and adherence to the party’s platform” (MacManus and Benner 204). I expect Marco Rubio's campaign to be about clear, consistent messaging and mobilization. Right now, from first glance, though, I find Rubios’ messaging and mobilization to be weak. Though it's deep into this cycle, it feels as if he is just getting started. Val Demmings has been able to crush him with messaging right now, “blanketing airwaves with ads talking about her law enforcement credentials and hitting Rubio over everything from his attendance record in the Senate to his stance on abortion rights.” (Greenwood).
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Alessia ScaturchioSeptember 13, 2022 at 10:49 AM
When looking at the 2022 midterm election there are three important states to keep in mind that will be important to watch. These states are Georgia, Florida, and Pennsylvania. These states are considered swing states and will be the ones candidates will be fighting for the most. According to “All in to Vote” swing states or battleground states “ Historically do not overwhelmingly lead toward one political party.”(All in to Vote ) With this in mind it's important that candidates overcampiagn in these areas so voters can make a definitive decision before entering the polls. For the Election Eve Project my candidate Marco Rubio is running in the state of Florida. Knowing that Florida is a swing state this presents some challenges for my candidate. Some of the key demographic voting blocs that can make a difference in Florida are the minority vote. After reading the textbook it states that “ The increasing population of racial and ethnic minorities, particularly Latinos and Asian Americans, is transforming America's political landscape in a dramatic way.” ( Stokes-Brown, 213) this means that these populations that are now on the rise need to be taken into account when crafting campaign strategies. Voter turnout in ethinic groups is becoming increasingly popular. In fact the textbook states that “ From 2018 jumping 10 to 13 percent” ( Stokes-Brown, 213). More specifically for Florida they will have to make sure to look out for not only the Latino vote but the Black vote as well. In an article entitled “ Florida Republicans target black voter turnout”( Skepoliti) it explains how our candidate Marco Rubio will need to make sure he focuses on securing the black vote in the state of Florida. The black vote is extremely important because of recent news claiming that republicans are trying to suppress the black vote in the state and make it harder to go out to the polls. With this news circling its important that Mr. Rubio addresses all black voters and shows encouragement to go to the polls. Each election year we are constantly changing as a nation. In the textbook it explains that “ changes in the country's demographic makeup have important implications for representation and office holding.”(Stokes-Brown, 213) As ethnic groups grow and shrink we try to adapt with changing mindsets and makeups. In an interview conducted over the summer with a political science professor she discussed the political makeup for the state of florida, and how it is constantly changing “ We're still the most diverse state demographically, racially and ethnically and generationally. So things can change. But there's no doubt about it. Florida Democrats are playing catch up in this election cycle.”( Menzel) Knowing that our country is constantly changing it's important to note what key issues will be the most important surrounding the upcoming election. In Florida, the top three key issues for voters in the state would be Abortion , Gun violence and, Inflation.
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AnonymousSeptember 13, 2022 at 11:29 AM
Florida, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are extremely important to each party for these upcoming midterm elections. Republicans will be looking to take back the majority in the senate while the Democratic Party will be looking to hold on. Each race in these states is going to come down to the wire. The candidate I will be focusing on in my Election Eve Project will be Dem. Raphael Warnock who is going against Rep. Herschel Walker. Among some of the issues that Warnock will have to speak on to sway voters include gun violence, the economy, and inflation but there seems to be an issue for Democratic voters in these battleground states that trumps all. According to Paul Kane from The Washington Post in his article “Culture Wars Could Be a Winning Issue – for Democrats” he says, “Democratic voters in these battleground states now rank abortion rights as, far and away, their most important policy topic, selected by 45 percent as one of their two most important national issues.” This is going to be a key topic for not just Warnock, but all Democratic candidates in battleground states. It is also key for each candidate to talk about how they will go about abortion rights to try and sway Gen Z voters. Gen Z has been extremely vocal about their opinions about the issue, especially on platforms such as Twitter and TikTok. As Janay Kingberry said in her article titled “Gen Z is influencing the Abortion Debate – from TikTok” for the Washington Post when Roe v Wade was overturned, “Especially after a record for youth turnout in the 2020 presidential election, the fight over abortion this year “has the potential to really, really bring young people out to a great degree,” said Abby Kiesa, deputy director of the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) at Tufts University.” Something else that Warnock will have to focus on is getting rural Black voters to turn out in numbers. As Jasmine Robinson wrote in her article for Wabe “Black voters turned Georgia blue in 2020. Can Warnock and Walker appeal to them now?" "The power to influence this election is in the hands of Black voters in Georgia. In the long term, it could be an indicator of how this key electorate will shape the trajectory of election outcomes in Georgia’s future.” Both candidates come from humble beginnings in rural Georgia, but the question is which one will appeal to them the most in these next coming weeks? With Trumps support of Walker, many of Trumps backers in Georgia will be rushing to the voting booths to back him. A big thing for Warnock in these midterms will be trying to sway voters who backed Gov. Brian Kemp away from backing Walker. Overall, I would say that Warnock is doing a solid job of appealing to the rural Black voters who have supported him in the past but his life as a pastor has made some feel as if he won’t do much about abortion rights. While he is a self-proclaimed “pro-choice pastor,” he will need to do a lot to get away from what people would think about him on the surface because his is a religious man. We will see how things go in the coming weeks.

Robinson, Jasmine. “Black Voters Turned Georgia Blue in 2020. Can Warnock and Walker Appeal to Them Now?” WABE, 11 July 2022, https://www.wabe.org/black-voters-are-responsible-for-turning-for-georgia-blue-in-2020/.

Kane, Paul. “Analysis | Culture Wars Could Be a Winning Issue - for Democrats.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 6 Aug. 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/06/midterms-inflation-abortion-gun-control-democrats/.

Kingsberry, Janay. “Gen Z Is Influencing the Abortion Debate - from TikTok.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 28 June 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2022/gen-z-tiktok-abortion-debate/?itid=lk_interstitial_manual_12.
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AnonymousSeptember 13, 2022 at 11:35 AM
By Mason Glod

Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida are important battlegrounds in the 2022 midterm elections because they have hotly contested elections and contain populations with inconsistent voting habits. In these states, both Democrats and Republicans have a chance of winning elections due to the states' swing state nature. Thus, voters' decisions may be more heavily dictated by campaigning efforts. For instance, authors Kate Kenski and Henry C. Kenski describe how party affinity can change regardless of registration saying, "Party registration is, of course, important as well, as most voters feel affinity toward the party with whom they are registered, but it is important to acknowledge that there can be a difference between how one is registered and which party one feels affinity toward during a given election," (180-181). Candidates in these states need to work hard to persuade voters to their side regardless of registration. Because of this, these states are key because these voters consistently deliver different results.

For my election eve project, I am covering the Pennsylvania race, specifically democrat John Fetterman who is running against Mehmet Oz. To win the Senate seat, these candidates will have to campaign to multiple different demographic voting blocks to earn votes. One major group these candidates need to target is young voters. In the New York Times article "Young Voters Are Fed Up With Their (Much) Older Leaders" by Maya King and Jonathan Weisman, the authors explain why young voters have become a powerful voting group saying "Interviews with these young voters reveal generational tensions driving their frustration. As they have come of age facing racial strife, political conflict, high inflation and a pandemic, they have looked for help from politicians who are more than three times their age," (1). Empowered by many political and social issues faced in their young lives, young voters can particularly have a strong influence on election results. Especially considering John Fetterman is younger than Mehmet Oz, Fetterman should work to attract young voters to build a better voting base for his campaign.

Fetterman and Oz will need to target many different issues to earn their voting base. Inflation and the economy have been identified as the most important issues to Pennsylvania voters. However, polls have shown that abortion is nearly as important as the economy and inflation to voters (Spady). Fetterman and Oz need to consider these three issues and tailor their messaging to address the public's concerns over these issues. These are the issues voters will be looking for.

I believe that Fetterman is doing a great job targeting key demographics and issues. He is appealing to Generation Z and younger voters well with his social media campaign, and is working hard to focus on key issues like abortion; currently, the majority of Pennsylvania voters believe Fetterman would do a better job than Oz handling the abortion issue (Spady). Fetterman needs to continue his campaign steadily and confidently, and I believe he is sure to turn out voters.

Work Cited

Kenski, Kate, and Henry C. Kenski "The 2020 General Election Vote in a Divided American Electorate" The 2020 Presidential Campaign : A Communications Perspective, edited by Robert E., Jr. Denton, Roman, and Littlefield, pp. 173-190.

King, Maya, and Jonathan Weisman. “Young Voters Are Fed up with Their (Much) Older Leaders.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 14 July 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/us/politics/youth-voters-midterms-polling.html.

Spady, Aubrie. “Senate Race Tightens in Key Midterm State, Inflation and Economy Trump Abortion as Most Important Issue.” Fox News, FOX News Network, 6 Sept. 2022, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/senate-race-tightens-midterm-state-inflation-economy-abortion-important-issue.
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Jack SpiegelSeptember 13, 2022 at 11:59 AM
Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida were three of the most important states in the 2020 presidential race, as much as they will be in the 2022 midterms. While these three states were some of the biggest swing states in terms of electoral college votes for the president, they are also going to be major swing states for control of congress. Democrats have narrow control in both the house and senate, so especially losing the senate races in these states will have major consequences.
According to the Pew Research center from an early August poll, the most pressing issues for the 2022 midterms are the economy, gun policy, and violent crime (Pew). Obviously, the economy has been on the top of everybody’s mind over the past couple of months with record inflation, gas prices, etc. What I also think is just as important is how voters think President Biden is handling these crises. Typically, midterms are a referendum on the current party in power, but Joe Biden has been arguably the most successful president in modern history, in unprecedented times, so I am stumped on what will happen in November.
Arguably the most important state last election cycle was Georgia, where Biden was the underdog, but ended up taking all 16 electoral votes, and both democratic candidates won their races for the senate. What many experts point to in justifying Biden’s Georgia win is the African American voting bloc, who were fed up with how the current president was handling race relations in America. One of the more prominent deaths of a black man was in Georgia, where Ahmaud Arbery was hunted down by three white men. While it wasn’t only the murder of Arbery that cause unrest in cities across America, his death certainly fired up Georgia voters because of the mishandling of arresting his killers. In The 2020 General Election Vote in a Divided American Electorate by Kate Kenski and Henry C. Kenski, they write “It took over two months before the men were arrested, and there may have been interference by public officials allowing police to arrest the perpetrators” (Kenski, Kenski)

What is different about the Walker & Warnock race this time around is that they are both African American candidates, rather than in 2020 where it was only Warnock. Obviously, this is going to greatly reduce the connection that some voters feel toward a certain candidate.
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Anna-Beth HayeSeptember 13, 2022 at 10:47 PM
Florida, Pennsylvania and Georgia are important to the 2022 elections because they are what are called flip states. What this means is that they can be determined as a Democratic state or a Republic state depending on the votes. A lot of the times these states determine who wins the election due to their spontaneity. According to “The 2020 General Election Vote in a Divided American Electorate” written by Kenski & Kenski, Georgia and Pennsylvania were won by Donald Trump a Republican in the 2016 election however in 2022 were won by Joe Biden a Democrat. Florida was not flipped.
A key demographic voting bloc is the age of the candidates. Young people do not want someone who is triple their age deciding for them. According to “Young Voters Are Fed Up With Their (Much) Older Leaders” by Maya King and Jonathan Weisman, they state how young people believe that those in office due to their age have the mindset of a world 30 or 40 years ago. Due to this it causes hesitation in voting because when you do not like both candidates you just do not want to vote at all. “A survey from The New York Times and Siena College found that just 1% of 18- to 29-year-olds strongly approve of the way Biden is handling his job. And 94% of Democrats under 30 said they wanted another candidate to run two years from now. Of all age groups, young voters were most likely to say they wouldn’t vote for either Biden or Trump in a hypothetical 2024 rematch.” (Weisman and King). The issues such as racism, sexism, and homophobia are just some that some of these candidates grew up on and their beliefs of them are instilled in their mindset. A lot of these candidates are closed minded and believe that rules and laws that were created hundreds of years ago can apply to a country that is growing and evolving everyday. However it is a cycle which is why such older people are in office. As stated in The Atlantic “Why Do Such Old People Run America” it states how young people do not like to vote. “Voters over 65 routinely go to the polls more often than young voters do, and political-science research has found that voters typically prefer candidates “who are closest to themselves in age.” (Derek Simpson) However young people do not want to vote because they do not see people like them. Also, the diversity in the candidates is a bloc as well. America is a very diverse country however the people who lead it are mostly Caucasian, people do not want to vote for people who do not look like them. White men live a very privileged life in this country making it hard for them to identify with 50% of the population.
Raphael Warnock beats the odds of these blocs because for one he is a black man. There are not a lot of black men in politics and with some representation in these offices it will help the voices of many black men be heard. Another reason as to how he beats the odds is that he is born in 1969 making him 53 years old. He is the age of many young people’s parents, uncles, aunts and even siblings. Warnock is able to see and comprehend a world that is growing and work with those growths and adaptations. He is not old enough to where his mindset is stuck in the unfairness that America was and sometimes still is.
Thompson, Derek. “Why Do Such Elderly People Run America?” The Atlantic, Atlantic Media Company, 5 Mar. 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/why-are-these-people-so-freaking-old/607492/.
King, Maya, and Jonathan Weisman. “Young Voters Are Fed up with Their (Much) Older Leaders.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 14 July 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/us/politics/youth-voters-midterms-polling.html.
Kenski, Kate and Henry C. Kenski. “The 2020 General Election Vote in a Divided American Electorate.” In The 2020 Presidential Campaign: A Communication Perspective, edited by Robert E. Denton, Rowman & Littlefield, 2021.
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AnonymousSeptember 14, 2022 at 10:33 PM
Bella Baird
The importance of Pennslyvania, Georgia, and Florida is due to their massive influence in the next presidential election results. Swing states play a large role due to their uncertainty in what side they may turn to. My own state, New Hampshire, has been called a swing state in the past years causing many candidates to visit frequently to hopefully persuade my community. Although New Hampshire may swing, there are only two House of Representative seats. Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida have a combined amount of 59 representative seats that could go either way, causing a much larger impact in the midterm elections.
One of Florida’s Representatives is Val Demings from the 10th District. An African American woman as well as Orlando’s first chief of police. My initial impression of Demings’s proposal was an average age representative with many awards due to her history in the Orlando police department. I think her background as a police chief is a great angle to bring many Americans who have negative opinions towards law enforcement is a great angle to have. Demings has had a great impact among the African American voters in Florida, “”As usual in Florida, the race will be decided by voter turnout. Rubio will have a slight advantage as to the number of registered Republican voters," said Towery. He expects Demings will remain competitive due to her support among African American voters”(Warner). She lacks in votes from different ethnicities and races other than African American. Demings would also benefit from stating her plans for goals she has yet to achieve.
Although Demings is slightly behind in the race, her push to continue to create the American Dream has been quite active. Working as one country fro this american dream, “ joining Democratic and Republican colleagues to finalize the America COMPETES Act to restore America’s global economic competitiveness by investing in American factories and American workers, creating good new jobs, lowering costs and securing supply chains, and ensuring good pay and safe workplaces for American workers.”(Rep. Deming Appointed to Economic Competitiveness Conference. 2022.) Rep. Demings is active introducing her goals and showing how she is working to better the country. Demings has been using two basic attributes to her advantage during her fundraising process, “political moderates could admire her centrism; people of color could identify with her race; women could identify with her gender”(Harris). Her social media has done quite well showing how she is family orientated, optimistic, and very in touch with her country. Her site includes many different aspects of her life as well coordinating the response of the airport divisions during 9/11.
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